280
FXUS62 KMLB 031004
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
604 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
- UNUSUALLY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS AND, IN PARTICULAR, HEAVY RAIN.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
TODAY-FRI...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL STALL
ACROSS NORTH FL FRI WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA (PWATS
2-2.25") KEEPING A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70-80%) WILL LIMIT MAX
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S. IT WILL BE VERY HUMID THOUGH WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN/STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING AS WELL.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, LONG SKINNY CAPES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
DO NOT AUGUR WELL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ESP ASSOCD WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH, THESE WILL
NOT BE ALL-DAY RAINS THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL SEE 2 OR MORE ROUNDS
OF RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME PONDING ON ROADS WILL OCCUR AND ONE
OR MORE FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS WATER AND A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SAT-WED...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY SAT JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA COAST.
NHC CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE PROBABILITIES ON DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS LOW, BUT MODELS
EVENTUALLY TAKE IT N TO NE AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SAT THEN DECREASE
SUN AND BEYOND BUT ONLY BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE (CLIMATOLOGICAL)
NORMS OF 40-60 PERCENT. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS WILL PRODUCE
AN UPTICK IN MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S SUN-WED AND
HEAT INDICES CLIMBING A BIT EACH DAY REACHING 102-106 WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FL LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RESULTING SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WEAK/
DELAYED SEA BREEZES TODAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FL OR
OFFSHORE NE FL AND MEANDER. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR BOATING, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A
CONTINUOUS RISK FOR MARINERS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEAK LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN-
MON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, REDUCING THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND PRODUCE AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
PRIMARY CHALLENGES OF TAFS CONTINUE TO BE TIMING OF HIGHEST
COVERAGE FOR STORMS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND THE OCCURRENCE OF
LOW CIGS AROUND GREATER ORLANDO EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY LIFR/IFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY AS SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOP. HIGHEST
COVERAGE FOR MCO LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 18-00Z WITH ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF STORMS AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS, FIRST FOR
MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA AFTER 18Z AND DAB/SFB PAST 21Z. LOW CHANCE FOR
GUSTS > 35 KT IN STRONGEST STORMS. S/SW WINDS 5-12 KT, FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT. EXCEPTION AT DAB WHERE SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHORT PERIOD OF ESE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 73 87 73 / 80 50 80 40
MCO 88 75 87 74 / 80 50 80 50
MLB 88 73 87 74 / 80 70 80 50
VRB 88 70 88 70 / 80 70 80 50
LEE 87 75 87 75 / 80 50 80 40
SFB 89 75 88 74 / 80 50 80 40
ORL 88 75 88 75 / 80 50 80 50
FPR 88 71 87 71 / 80 60 80 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HEIL
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