353
FXUS62 KMLB 051058
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
658 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. TODAY,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH INCREASES ON
SUNDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK, BUT
SEASONABLY AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN SCATTERED
STORMS.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 3 AND AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE, A NEARLY-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM TD 3
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AS TD
3 MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT IN TWO, WITH
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC (REMNANTS OF TD
3) WHILE THE OTHER RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF. IN RESPONSE, HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRETCHES
WESTWARD. FOR THE WORK WEEK, A FLAT AND ELONGATED RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD SWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, LEAVING ABOVE-NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER FLORIDA. SOME MEMBERS SHOW A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
IN THIS REGIME, SURFACE FEATURES WILL LARGELY DICTATE DAILY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION AS TOTAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO
NEAR-NORMAL VALUES. THE NEAR-SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BEGINS A
SLOW MARCH NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUNDAY TO
ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD OF CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD AFFECT PLACEMENT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY-TONIGHT...
WE START THIS MORNING OFF WITH SOME LEFTOVER HAZE FROM FIREWORKS
EARLIER TONIGHT. IF SKIES ADEQUATELY CLEAR, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY TRY
TO FORM AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF DRY TIME TO START THE DAY.
TRY TO GET THOSE OUTDOOR TASKS OUT OF THE WAY BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON!
THE EFFECTS OF UNUSUALLY RICH MOISTURE AND NEARBY DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES PEAK AT 70-90%,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR, SPACE COAST, AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
IN THIS AREA, A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WHICH
SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS. IT IS ALSO IN
THIS GENERAL AREA WHERE THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SOME SHORT-
LIVED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN LOCALES. ENSEMBLE-MAXIMUM
RAINFALL TODAY IS ON THE ORDER OF 3-4", INDICATING THE LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK. AREAL-AVERAGED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER THAN THIS. ASIDE FROM FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING, A FEW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE A SECONDARY THREAT TODAY FROM
STRONGER STORMS.
JUST AS IN PAST DAYS, RAIN AND THUNDER DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
RIDGING QUICKLY EXERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER AS TD 3 LIFTS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL
SOUTH OF US, OUR SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LOOKS TO BE FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO HAVE A
LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER SW FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT. BEACH-GOERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT IN THE WESTERN HORIZON FOR APPROACHING STORMS. OF THE TWO
DAYS, SUNDAY'S COVERAGE LOOKS HIGHER (60-70%) COMPARED TO MONDAY (50-
60%) AS MOISTURE VALUES ONLY SLOWLY FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, EXCEPT SOMEWHAT ABOVE-NORMAL
READINGS AT THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 100-105 WILL
REQUIRE ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND BREAKS IN THE SHADE/AC IF WORKING OR
PLAYING OUTDOORS.
REST OF NEXT WEEK...
AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERVIEW, VERTICALLY-STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND, LEADING TO AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
KICKED OFF BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. COVERAGE EACH DAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 50-70%, HIGHEST OVER THE INTERIOR. LATER IN THE
WEEK, COVERAGE MAY INCREASE JUST A BIT AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MIGRATES OVERHEAD. A PASSING TROUGH OVER THE MID-LATITUDES MAY
ALSO FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, WHICH WOULD
INCREASE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AT THE COAST. THESE ARE
RELATIVELY SMALL DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
NEAR-NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSIST. BOTTOM LINE, FAIRLY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC, ON
A HEADING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE DEPRESSION DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS LATER TODAY.
BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PROMOTE OFFSHORE-MOVING STORMS LATE SUNDAY. THE HIGH-
PRESSURE AXIS LIFTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, LEADING TO MORE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY S TO SW WINDS UP TO 15 KT TODAY, EXCEPT NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL WHERE NW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ON SUNDAY
REMAIN SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT BEFORE TURNING SSE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
A DAILY SEA BREEZE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM ON MONDAY AS BACKGROUND
WINDS RELAX A BIT. SEAS 2-3 FT EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT BEYOND 30 NM
OFFSHORE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE BY
15Z. VCSH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO VCTS AT 18Z, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPOS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS ALONG
WITH TIX AND MLB FROM 20 TO 23Z. STILL TOO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE TO INCLUDE DAB AND THE TREASURE COAST
TERMINALS IN A TEMPO. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 73 90 75 / 80 50 70 10
MCO 89 75 90 75 / 90 50 70 10
MLB 89 75 90 75 / 80 40 60 10
VRB 90 71 92 71 / 80 40 60 10
LEE 88 75 89 76 / 90 60 70 10
SFB 89 75 91 75 / 90 50 70 10
ORL 89 75 90 76 / 90 50 70 10
FPR 89 72 91 72 / 80 40 60 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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