653  
FXUS62 KMLB 060454  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. TODAY,  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY  
HAZARDS. THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH INCREASES ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK, BUT SEASONABLY  
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN SCATTERED STORMS.  
 
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY  
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES  
MOST AFTERNOONS.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A LINGERING WSW-ENE BOUNDARY NEAR THE  
ORLANDO AREA ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL GENERATED A  
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE HAS  
BEGUN GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO BE FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTION THROUGH  
THE DAY BY MESOSCALE MODELS, ALONG WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.  
 
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA. POPS 70-80%, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED  
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN STORM THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL. TOTALS OF 2-3+" WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO  
JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY, FUELED BY AMPLE AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. PEAK CONVECTIVE  
TIMING IS FORECAST BETWEEN 4-8 PM TODAY. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR  
COASTAL AREAS FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING, WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S  
ARE FORECAST.  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
ONSHORE ALONG THE CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING  
OVER THAT AREA INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS  
WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA, SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW WILL PREVAIL, LIMITING THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF OR EVEN  
PINNING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE, THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE PENINSULA WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. POPS 60-70% CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER  
AIR MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP POPS NEARER TO NORMAL (30-50%). A  
FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS DCAPE AND  
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. STORM  
MOTIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-105  
DEGREES. USE CAUTION IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE, STAY WELL  
HYDRATED, AND TAKE ADEQUATE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C.  
 
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN OVER THE  
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHETHER THIS FEATURE RESIDES OVER OR JUST  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DICTATE THE LOCATION OF THE SEA  
BREEZE COLLISION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WOULD BE FAVORED, AT THIS TIME.  
SHOULD THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFT SOUTHWARD, HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED. TYPICAL EARLY JULY MOISTURE IS ALSO  
FORECAST, WITH PWATS 1.7-2". THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGICAL  
NORMAL POP OF 50-60% EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE  
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA WATERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN AN  
INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, A  
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL IS PRODUCING NORTH-  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, THOUGH THESE WINDS HAVE  
BEEN LIMITED TO 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE  
CAUTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS, AS  
SOUTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING  
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL,  
REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN  
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO  
BECOME NEAR-NORMAL, AS OPPOSED TO THE ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF THE  
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS 2-4FT THROUGH SUNDAY DIMINISH TO 1-2 FT  
EARLY IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
WILL MONITOR LOW/MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN  
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE, BIGGER  
AVIATION CONCERN IS A RETURN OF 50-70% STORM CHANCES THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST  
FOR CONVECTION AT ORLANDO AREA, DAYTONA, AND SPACE COAST AIRFIELDS  
WHERE TEMPOS WERE ADDED. FEW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN STRONGEST  
STORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z. LT/VRB EARLY, THEN SW WINDS 5-12 KT TODAY,  
GUSTS TO 20 KT ESP MLB SOUTHWARD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 91 74 91 75 / 60 20 50 10  
MCO 91 75 92 76 / 70 20 60 10  
MLB 91 75 91 76 / 60 20 50 20  
VRB 92 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20  
LEE 89 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 10  
SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 60 10  
ORL 91 76 92 76 / 70 20 60 10  
FPR 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LEAHY  
AVIATION...HEIL  
 
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