653
FXUS62 KMLB 060454
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. TODAY,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH INCREASES ON
SUNDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK, BUT SEASONABLY
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN SCATTERED STORMS.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A LINGERING WSW-ENE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
ORLANDO AREA ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL GENERATED A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE HAS
BEGUN GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO BE FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY BY MESOSCALE MODELS, ALONG WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. POPS 70-80%, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN STORM THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. TOTALS OF 2-3+" WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY, FUELED BY AMPLE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. PEAK CONVECTIVE
TIMING IS FORECAST BETWEEN 4-8 PM TODAY. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING, WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S
ARE FORECAST.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THAT AREA INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL, LIMITING THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF OR EVEN
PINNING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE, THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS 60-70% CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP POPS NEARER TO NORMAL (30-50%). A
FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS DCAPE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. STORM
MOTIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-105
DEGREES. USE CAUTION IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE, STAY WELL
HYDRATED, AND TAKE ADEQUATE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHETHER THIS FEATURE RESIDES OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DICTATE THE LOCATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WOULD BE FAVORED, AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFT SOUTHWARD, HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED. TYPICAL EARLY JULY MOISTURE IS ALSO
FORECAST, WITH PWATS 1.7-2". THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL POP OF 50-60% EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WATERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, A
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL IS PRODUCING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, THOUGH THESE WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS, AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL,
REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEAR-NORMAL, AS OPPOSED TO THE ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS 2-4FT THROUGH SUNDAY DIMINISH TO 1-2 FT
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WILL MONITOR LOW/MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE, BIGGER
AVIATION CONCERN IS A RETURN OF 50-70% STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
FOR CONVECTION AT ORLANDO AREA, DAYTONA, AND SPACE COAST AIRFIELDS
WHERE TEMPOS WERE ADDED. FEW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN STRONGEST
STORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z. LT/VRB EARLY, THEN SW WINDS 5-12 KT TODAY,
GUSTS TO 20 KT ESP MLB SOUTHWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 75 / 60 20 50 10
MCO 91 75 92 76 / 70 20 60 10
MLB 91 75 91 76 / 60 20 50 20
VRB 92 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
LEE 89 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 10
SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 60 10
ORL 91 76 92 76 / 70 20 60 10
FPR 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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