602
FXUS62 KMLB 061026
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
626 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST, CONTINUING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AXIS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE KEYS AND TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA, RESULTING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. WHILE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PROGRESSION INLAND WILL BE LIMITED, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION THAT FAVORS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 70 PERCENT POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS NORTHWARD. THE TREASURE COAST AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE MAY ONLY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS.
MODEST MUCAPE AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
NEAR 2 INCHES AND EVEN GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN WELL-SATURATED AREAS
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AND URBAN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND THREAT TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COMES TO A CLOSE TODAY, HEAT CONTINUES TO
BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED
PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, PEAK HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH 100 TO 105F DUE TO GREATER
HUMIDITY. IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, BE SURE
TO REMAIN WELL HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
AN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDING. MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
AS CHANTAL CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND DIMINISHES INTO MONDAY. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN A PINNED EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. BY TUESDAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR A
MORE CENTRAL SEA BREEZE COLLISION. HAVE MAINTAINED A 50 TO 65
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UP
TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHETHER THE SEA BREEZE FAVORS THE EASTERN OR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IT IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR
OUT TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE IT WILL RESIDE. MAINTAINED A
60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE 2
INCHES. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AND WEAKENS.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE LOCALLY, WITH SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FEET TODAY FALLING TO AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS, BUT WILL RETURN TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DESPITE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE, LEADING TO A
PERSISTENT ACTIVE PATTERN LOCALLY. ACTIVITY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN, WITH POPS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE
FOCUSED IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS ACTIVITY FROM THE PENINSULA MOVES OFFSHORE DUE TO THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS TO START THE DAY AROUND THE ORLANDO/DAYTONA
AREAS, BUT THAT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT S/SW
WINDS 5-12 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT PREVAILING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEYOND 18-20Z THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET; ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SW TO NE. CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 35
KT SEEM MORE ATTAINABLE TODAY DUE TO STRONGER BACKGROUND WINDS,
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS MORE IN DOUBT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 75 / 60 20 50 10
MCO 91 75 92 76 / 70 20 60 10
MLB 91 75 91 76 / 60 20 50 20
VRB 92 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
LEE 89 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 10
SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 60 10
ORL 91 76 92 76 / 70 20 60 10
FPR 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HEIL
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