440
FXUS62 KMLB 061842
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION THAT MOVED
ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
PERSISTED INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35-45 MPH. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER IN RECENT RUNS. WITH
CLEARER, MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THE BIG QUESTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CAN RECOVER. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
RECOVERY ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA, WITH AN
INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD NOTED ON VISIBLE GOES-EAST IMAGERY. SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA ALREADY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CURRENT
CAM GUIDANCE, WHICH DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW,
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS 40-50% FROM AROUND MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD,
THOUGH THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. TO THE NORTH, POPS REMAIN 50-70%
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AS THIS AREA SEEMS TO HAVE NOT
BEEN AS AFFECTED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A HEALTHIER
CUMULUS FIELD WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXISTS UPSTREAM.
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45-50 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY, AS PORTIONS OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED. THIS THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8
C/KM. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
(PWATS ~2"). SHOULD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND 9-10 PM.
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TO MODERATE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED CONVECTION
REMAINS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOONS, WITH PWATS UP TO 2".
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL MONDAY, BEFORE OVERALL FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. WHILE THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA MONDAY, LIGHTER FLOW TUESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE
CENTRALIZED COLLISION. POPS 40-50% EACH DAY, WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50
MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
SUPPORTING DCAPE TO AROUND 800-900 J/KG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN, AS STEERING FLOW WEAKENS AND
CELLS MOVE SLOWLY. NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST TO
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHETHER THE SEA BREEZE
FAVORS THE EASTERN OR WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IT IS
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE IT WILL
RESIDE. MAINTAINED A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND UP TO A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND SETTLES IN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL, REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
HOWEVER, WILL SEE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP EACH DAY,
BACKING WINDS ALONG THE COAST SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING THEM TO
10-15 KTS. THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES AROUND 40-60%,
HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS 2-4 FT INTO
TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
THE TREASURE COAST WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH/VCTS IMPACTS ARE
DIMINISHING FROM MLB SOUTHWARD WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING TSRA TEMPOS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST. PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 91 74 90 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 75 91 75 92 / 20 50 10 50
MLB 75 90 75 88 / 20 40 30 40
VRB 72 91 72 90 / 20 40 30 40
LEE 75 90 75 90 / 20 40 10 50
SFB 75 92 76 92 / 20 50 10 50
ORL 76 91 77 92 / 20 50 10 50
FPR 72 91 73 89 / 20 40 30 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...LAW
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