440  
FXUS62 KMLB 061842  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH  
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS  
THE PENINSULA.  
 
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY  
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES  
MOST AFTERNOONS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION THAT MOVED  
ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING  
PERSISTED INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING  
TO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO  
AROUND 35-45 MPH. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH  
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER IN RECENT RUNS. WITH  
CLEARER, MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THE BIG QUESTION FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER CAN RECOVER. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF  
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF  
RECOVERY ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA, WITH AN  
INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD NOTED ON VISIBLE GOES-EAST IMAGERY. SOME  
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA ALREADY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CURRENT  
CAM GUIDANCE, WHICH DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG  
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW,  
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS 40-50% FROM AROUND MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD,  
THOUGH THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. TO THE NORTH, POPS REMAIN 50-70%  
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AS THIS AREA SEEMS TO HAVE NOT  
BEEN AS AFFECTED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A HEALTHIER  
CUMULUS FIELD WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXISTS UPSTREAM.  
 
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45-50 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN  
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY, AS PORTIONS OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE  
COASTS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED. THIS THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY SOME  
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8  
C/KM. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-  
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE  
(PWATS ~2"). SHOULD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS, WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND 9-10 PM.  
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S.  
 
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT  
NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST  
AREA BY TUESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TO MODERATE SHOWER AND  
STORM CHANCES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED CONVECTION  
REMAINS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOONS, WITH PWATS UP TO 2".  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL MONDAY, BEFORE OVERALL FLOW  
BECOMES LIGHT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA  
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. WHILE THE SEA  
BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE  
PENINSULA MONDAY, LIGHTER FLOW TUESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE  
CENTRALIZED COLLISION. POPS 40-50% EACH DAY, WITH CONVECTION  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50  
MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS  
SUPPORTING DCAPE TO AROUND 800-900 J/KG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN, AS STEERING FLOW WEAKENS AND  
CELLS MOVE SLOWLY. NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S  
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH HUMID  
CONDITIONS.  
 
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID WEEK  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST TO  
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHETHER THE SEA BREEZE  
FAVORS THE EASTERN OR WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN  
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IT IS  
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE IT WILL  
RESIDE. MAINTAINED A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND UP TO A  
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN  
CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WARM AND MUGGY  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID  
70S.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, AS THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND SETTLES IN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL, REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.  
HOWEVER, WILL SEE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP EACH DAY,  
BACKING WINDS ALONG THE COAST SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING THEM TO  
10-15 KTS. THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35  
KTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES AROUND 40-60%,  
HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS 2-4 FT INTO  
TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE  
THE TREASURE COAST WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH/VCTS IMPACTS ARE  
DIMINISHING FROM MLB SOUTHWARD WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN  
CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING TSRA TEMPOS ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE  
TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST. PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO  
AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS  
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 74 91 74 90 / 20 40 20 40  
MCO 75 91 75 92 / 20 50 10 50  
MLB 75 90 75 88 / 20 40 30 40  
VRB 72 91 72 90 / 20 40 30 40  
LEE 75 90 75 90 / 20 40 10 50  
SFB 75 92 76 92 / 20 50 10 50  
ORL 76 91 77 92 / 20 50 10 50  
FPR 72 91 73 89 / 20 40 30 40  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LEAHY  
AVIATION...LAW  
 
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