278
FXUS62 KMLB 071017
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
617 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
RETURNS TO THE AREA, HELPING TO REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FOCUSED PRIMARILY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD
WHERE THE FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH,
LEADING TO A ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS
ACROSS THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA AND UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH MODEST MUCAPE VALUES
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 900 J/KG, AND
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT THE LINGERING MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CREATE HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. PEAK HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE CAPABLE OF REACHING 100 TO 105 IN SPOTS, AND A MODERATE
HEATRISK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD ENSURE THEY ARE TAKING PREVENTATIVE
ACTIONS TO AVOID HEAT STRESS. THIS INCLUDES REMAINING ADEQUATELY
HYDRATED AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN EITHER THE SHADE OR AN AIR
CONDITIONED BUILDING IF OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MUGGY, THOUGH LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY, SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MID-
WEEK AND REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS WILL DETERMINE SURFACE FLOW, JUST HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO MOVE, AND WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION MAY OCCUR. ON TUESDAY, LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A FARTHER PUSH INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE, WITH A
COLLISION LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. HAVE
MAINTAINED A 40 TO 50 PERCENT POP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
REFLECT THIS. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE REMAINS A GREATER AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER, THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN A WAVE OF MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE PENINSULA BY THURSDAY FROM THE EAST, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SO AS A RESULT, KEPT POPS
BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH THE MOISTURE PRESENT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MUGGY AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING 105 AT TIMES.
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME EACH AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY TO PREVENT
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY, SETTLING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MID AND LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS,
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR
MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME FROM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONGOING DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD- TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AND
ROUGHER SEAS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. STILL EXPECTING
AFTERNOON SCT CONVECTION WITH 40-60% COVERAGE, NECESSITATING
TEMPOS FOR MLB/VRB/FPR AND VC ELSEWHERE. TIMING STILL RANGES
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. LIGHT S/SW BREEZES, BCMG SE AT MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
WHERE SEA BREEZE IS FAVORED AFTER 17-18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 90 75 / 40 20 40 30
MCO 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20
MLB 91 75 89 75 / 50 20 40 30
VRB 92 72 90 72 / 50 30 40 20
LEE 90 75 91 75 / 40 20 50 20
SFB 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 30
ORL 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30
FPR 91 72 90 72 / 50 30 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HEIL
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