394  
FXUS62 KMLB 071801  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
201 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH  
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS  
THE PENINSULA.  
 
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY  
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES  
MOST AFTERNOONS.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD  
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
RETURNS TO THE AREA, HELPING TO REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS  
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FOCUSED PRIMARILY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD  
WHERE THE FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH,  
LEADING TO A ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS  
ACROSS THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA AND UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
RAIN AND STORMS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE  
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH MODEST MUCAPE VALUES  
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 900 J/KG, AND  
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,  
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ACTIVITY  
WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE  
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  
THE LOCAL WATERS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR  
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT THE LINGERING MOIST AIRMASS  
WILL CREATE HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. PEAK HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN  
MAY BE CAPABLE OF REACHING 100 TO 105 IN SPOTS, AND A MODERATE  
HEATRISK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT  
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD ENSURE THEY ARE TAKING PREVENTATIVE  
ACTIONS TO AVOID HEAT STRESS. THIS INCLUDES REMAINING ADEQUATELY  
HYDRATED AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN EITHER THE SHADE OR AN AIR  
CONDITIONED BUILDING IF OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.  
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
MUGGY, THOUGH LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING  
NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY, SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MID-  
WEEK AND REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE  
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS WILL DETERMINE SURFACE FLOW, JUST HOW  
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO MOVE, AND WHERE THE SEA  
BREEZE COLLISION MAY OCCUR. ON TUESDAY, LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW WILL  
ALLOW FOR A FARTHER PUSH INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE, WITH A  
COLLISION LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. HAVE  
MAINTAINED A 40 TO 50 PERCENT POP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO  
REFLECT THIS. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE REMAINS A GREATER AMOUNT  
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER, THERE DOES  
APPEAR TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN A WAVE OF MOISTURE  
APPROACHING THE PENINSULA BY THURSDAY FROM THE EAST, FURTHER  
SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY  
ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SO AS A RESULT, KEPT POPS  
BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THEIR  
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,  
THOUGH THE MOISTURE PRESENT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MUGGY AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH  
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING 105 AT TIMES.  
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME EACH AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DIURNAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY TO PREVENT  
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH  
TUESDAY, SETTLING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MID AND LATE  
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS,  
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET  
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
PERSIST, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE EAST  
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR  
MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME FROM CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONGOING DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE FROM  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD- TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS  
IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AND  
ROUGHER SEAS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF  
STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING INTERIOR  
TERMINALS AS OF 18Z. MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS THRU 20-21Z AS CONVECTION  
PUSHES EASTWARD. OUTFLOW WILL REACH KDAB/KTIX, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE  
IN IMPACTS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SOUTH OF KMCO LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH IMPACTS TO TREASURE COAST TERMINALS. EAST COAST SEA  
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND VERY SLOWLY WHICH WILL BE THE TARGET FOR  
CONVECTION THRU EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING  
SOUTHWEST AT DAYBREAK BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 75 90 75 90 / 10 40 30 60  
MCO 76 93 75 92 / 20 50 30 60  
MLB 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 30 50  
VRB 71 91 72 90 / 20 40 30 50  
LEE 76 91 76 91 / 10 50 30 60  
SFB 76 93 76 93 / 20 50 30 60  
ORL 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 30 60  
FPR 72 90 72 89 / 20 40 20 50  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN  
AVIATION...SCHAPER  
 
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