826
FXUS62 KMLB 071857
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
257 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
- SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY, WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S, TROPICAL HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTRARY TO YESTERDAY, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE TREASURE COAST. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THIS
FEATURE PINNED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION TODAY. CAMS SUGGEST THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING OUT OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INTO LATE AFTERNOON, GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, MAINLY FROM AROUND MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. POPS AROUND 40-60%
IN THIS AREA, WITH CONVECTION THEN MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, AS FORECAST DCAPE VALUES
SIT AROUND 800 J/KG. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE THREATS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN, DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S, WITH HUMIDITY LEADING TO
MUGGY CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR-
NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AS THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE. MODELS
SUGGEST THE COLLISION WILL OCCUR INCREASINGLY INTO THE INTERIOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SLACKENS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR WHERE THE COLLISION WILL OCCUR, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MAY
SHIFT SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, INCREASING PWATS
TO AROUND 2+". THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES BETWEEN 60-70%
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LIGHTER STORM
MOTIONS WILL ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOT, BUT NEAR-NORMAL, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
100-106 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR
SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS. PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C. LOOK
BEFORE YOU LOCK! IT IS NOT SAFE TO LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS
UNATTENDED IN A CAR FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
WILL BACK WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES AROUND 40-60%. SEAS
1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING INTERIOR
TERMINALS AS OF 18Z. MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS THRU 20-21Z AS CONVECTION
PUSHES EASTWARD. OUTFLOW WILL REACH KDAB/KTIX, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SOUTH OF KMCO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPACTS TO TREASURE COAST TERMINALS. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND VERY SLOWLY WHICH WILL BE THE TARGET FOR
CONVECTION THRU EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT DAYBREAK BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 90 75 90 / 10 40 30 60
MCO 76 93 75 92 / 20 50 30 60
MLB 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 30 50
VRB 71 91 72 90 / 20 40 30 50
LEE 76 91 76 91 / 10 50 30 60
SFB 76 93 76 93 / 20 50 30 60
ORL 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 30 60
FPR 72 90 72 89 / 20 40 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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