916  
FXUS62 KMLB 081405  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY.  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS TO 35-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN  
THE WORKWEEK AS MOISTURE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.  
 
- NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY  
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-106F,  
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK  
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING  
WITH LIGHT WSW FLOW IN THE H9-H7 LAYER NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMISH MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH ~8.5C AT  
H7 AT XMR AND -7C AT H5 AT JAX/XMR. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR  
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, MAINLY IN THE  
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND  
COASTAL BREVARD TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR WITH MOST OF THE  
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY NNE TO  
VOLUSIA COUNTY. THE JULY HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S  
COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH  
MAX READINGS FROM 100-106 IN THE AFTERNOON. NO FORECAST  
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 90S.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------  
 
MEAN RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC OVER FLORIDA THIS MORNING.  
THIS RIDGE IS ESSENTIALLY VERTICALLY STACKED, WITH A SURFACE  
BERMUDA HIGH AXIS ACROSS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL, UPPER  
HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE  
CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A PAIR OF EASTERLY WAVES, ONE OVER  
THE W GULF AND ANOTHER NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, AND A WEAKNESS IN THE  
MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TOTAL MOISTURE  
VALUES HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THE WEAK WAVE APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS IS FORECAST TO BECOME  
ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA LATE IN THE WORK  
WEEK. REGARDLESS, SOMEWHAT RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE  
ADVECTED OVER THE STATE. MEANWHILE, THE AREA OF GREATEST POSITIVE  
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH CLOSER TO FLORIDA AND  
THE GULF. IN THE WESTERLIES, THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST MAY BE JUST  
STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO SOUTH  
FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
SOME MEMBERS SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF A LARGE TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER  
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) EARLY NEXT WEEK. 07/12Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS  
MEANINGFUL SUPPORT FOR THIS OUTCOME, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT  
DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHETHER THIS SETUP WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE  
OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
 
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------  
 
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...  
 
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, RELATIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NONETHELESS,  
SEASONABLE MOISTURE, THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE, AND THE  
POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SUPPORT SCATTERED (40-60%) STORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD  
BE FAVORED FOR GREATEST COVERAGE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND  
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
STRONGER STORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH PEAK  
HEAT INDICES FROM 100-106 DEG F.  
 
THURSDAY-WEEKEND...  
 
A MODEST INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH WEAK SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, WILL SUPPORT 50-70%  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON,  
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROPAGATION OF SOME  
STORMS TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. TYPICAL JULY HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES MAXING OUT AS HIGH AS  
106 DEG F OR SO. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE  
EXTENDED DURATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK CONDITIONS  
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR  
VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS WITH COMPROMISED HEALTH OR INSUFFICIENT  
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DOMINANT RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS,  
WITH THE CAVEAT OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS OR TUTT OFF THE EAST COAST.  
THIS HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DRAG HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE STATE,  
LEADING TO CONTINUED SCATTERED-NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT  
WEATHER DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA, GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE  
COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE FORECAST.  
 
WINDS S/SW 5-12 KT EXCEPT SE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3  
FT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MORE WSW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER  
15Z. VCSH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE  
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR AFTER 20Z AS THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS. INTERIOR  
TERMINALS HAVE GREATEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS DUE TO TSRA, SO HAVE  
TEMPOS AT MCO, ISM, AND SFB FROM 22Z THROUGH 01Z. SOME PUSH BACK  
TOWARDS THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS  
LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER VCSH OR VCTS  
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 02Z, WITH  
LIGHT SSW WINDS OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 91 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 20  
MCO 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20  
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 20  
VRB 91 72 90 73 / 30 20 50 20  
LEE 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 20  
SFB 94 76 92 76 / 50 40 60 20  
ORL 93 77 92 76 / 50 40 60 20  
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 30 20 50 20  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...VOLKMER  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN  
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