280
FXUS62 KMLB 082328
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS TO 35-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN
THE WORKWEEK AS MOISTURE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
- NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-106F,
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WEAKLY REACHES TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA
HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND A BIT FROM THE CAPE SOUTH,
WHILE BEING PINNED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH, DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. BROADLY SPEAKING, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (CHANCES 30-50%)
INITIALLY DEVELOPING ON THE SEA BREEZES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE
EVENING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. WHILE THERE'S PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND DECENT LAPSE RATES (ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS),
DRY/WARM MID- LEVELS HAVE AGAIN BEEN A SIGNIFICANT HURDLE TO
CONVECTION. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW SHORT
LIVED, LIGHT SHOWERS, AND A SINGLE LIGHTNING STORM IN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS FROM DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH WILL HELP SOME, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WILL NEED BOUNDARIES TO FIND POCKETS OF HIGHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET DEEPER CONVECTION GOING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L90S
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-106F.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (CHANCES 40-60%), ESPECIALLY ON THE
SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY THURSDAY, A MODEST INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
COMBINED WITH WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH, WILL SUPPORT 50-70%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON,
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROPAGATION OF SOME
STORMS TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. TYPICAL JULY HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES MAXING OUT AS HIGH AS
106 DEG F OR SO. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR
VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS WITH COMPROMISED HEALTH OR INSUFFICIENT
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DOMINANT RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS, WITH THE CAVEAT OF A
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS OR TUTT OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO DRAG HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE STATE, LEADING TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED-NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BASIN REMAINS IN CONTROL AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT, TO OFFSHORE FROM THE LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
SEA BREEZE, BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS 5-10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AT TIMES. SEAS 1-3 FT.
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCES INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
LACKLUSTER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH A
LIMITED CU FIELD SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS,
DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THUS, HAVE REMOVED A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE INTO TONIGHT, AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF AND
ISOLATED. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT DAB THROUGH 2Z, HOWEVER, AS THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ALONG THE COAST FIRST, BEFORE SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED TEMPOS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS READILY APPARENT NEARING MCO AS OF
AROUND 2330Z. A FEW HOURS OF SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
BREEZE AT MCO/ISM/SFB, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL BACK
E/SE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND.
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 90 75 91 / 20 50 30 50
MCO 76 92 75 93 / 30 60 30 60
MLB 76 89 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
VRB 73 90 73 90 / 10 30 20 50
LEE 77 91 75 92 / 20 50 30 60
SFB 77 93 75 93 / 20 60 30 60
ORL 77 92 76 93 / 20 60 30 60
FPR 73 90 74 90 / 10 30 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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