700  
FXUS62 KMLB 090508  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
108 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
- SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TODAY, PARTICULARLY  
OVER THE INTERIOR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS TO 35-45 MPH,  
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
- NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY  
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-106F,  
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK  
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C.  
 
- SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL  
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE  
APPROACHES THE STATE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------  
 
FLORIDA'S WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY AN AREA OF  
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS FROM THE W  
ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TUCKED BENEATH THE UPPER HIGH IS A  
WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN THE  
WESTERLIES, A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
TOTAL MOISTURE VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.  
 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS  
FORECAST. THE EASTERLY WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BE  
REDIRECTED NORTHWARD, GENERALLY NOT IMPACTING LOCAL WEATHER. UPPER  
RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE WEAK TROUGH WELL TO  
OUR NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY OSCILLATE THE NEAR-SURFACE RIDGE  
AXIS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS  
SLIGHTLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.  
REGARDLESS, PRESSURE PATTERNS ARE LOOSE; THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE  
SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM EACH DAY.  
 
08/12Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TUTT (TROPICAL  
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS SOMETIME IN THE  
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MORE IMPORTANTLY, SEVERAL MEMBERS ALSO  
SUGGEST THAT A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSIT SLOWLY  
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. COINCIDENT WITH THIS, THE SURFACE RIDGE  
AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS MOISTURE INCREASES.  
 
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------  
 
TODAY...  
 
THE OVERALL SETUP IS FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, AND HREF  
MEMBERS SEEM TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF SCATTERED  
STORMS TODAY. ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE ADVANCING SEA  
BREEZE, WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
BE FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR (50-60%) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, WITH LESSER CHANCES (30-50%) ALONG THE COAST. MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE, LEADING TO STRONG INSTABILITY.  
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAIN  
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEASONABLY HOT  
AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING UP TO AROUND 106 DEG F.  
 
THURSDAY-WEEKEND...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY, HOWEVER, PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE  
FORMATION EACH DAY. THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE  
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY, WITH MEMBERS NOW INDICATING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE  
I-4 CORRIDOR.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD  
TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEASONABLE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
STORMS, MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR, CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
QUICK HEATING IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HEAT  
INDICES TO BOUNCE UP TO AS HIGH AS 106 DEG F. THOSE WORKING OR  
PLAYING OUTDOORS SHOULD KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS AND NEVER  
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
A PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORED AS DISTURBANCES  
APPROACH FROM THE ATLANTIC, FORCING THE SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWARD WHILE  
ENHANCING LOCAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE HIGHER  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS  
UNSETTLED SETUP MAY LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE  
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY BEFORE SLIPPING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA  
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. WHILE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN  
OVER LAND, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST,  
PARTICULARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THIS WEEKEND, THE  
HIGH SHIFTS BACK TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM  
EACH DAY, ENHANCING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COAST. GENERALLY  
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST.  
 
SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY-COMPONENT WINDS (SE OFF  
THE TREASURE COAST, AND MORE SW NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL) UP TO 12 KT  
EACH DAY, TURNING ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WSW AFTER 15Z. THE ECSB IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,  
WITH WINDS BACKING TO OUT OF THE ESE ALONG THE COAST AND AT ALL  
INTERIOR TERMINALS EXCEPT LEE. VCTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,  
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 20Z  
FOLLOWING THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS AT MCO, ISM,  
AND SFB FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z. ACTIVITY IS  
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z, WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 90 75 91 75 / 60 40 60 10  
MCO 94 76 93 77 / 60 40 60 20  
MLB 90 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 20  
VRB 90 73 91 73 / 40 20 50 20  
LEE 91 76 92 76 / 60 50 50 10  
SFB 93 76 93 77 / 60 50 60 20  
ORL 93 76 93 77 / 60 40 60 20  
FPR 90 73 91 74 / 40 20 50 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HEIL  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN  
 
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