528
FNUS72 KMLB 100849
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SFWMD - SHINGLE CREEK- 28,26...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
449 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE WEST AND
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE BURN
SITE AFTER 5 PM, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND
10 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID 100S. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS (40 PERCENT) WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM.
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS,
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 48.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38 37 35 34 33 32 36 39 43 45 47 50
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 30 40 40 40
TEMP............76 76 78 81 84 88 90 92 92 92 92 91
RH..............94 97 91 82 74 68 62 58 56 56 56 58
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 3 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 3 4 9 13 20 24 32 37 41 48
LVORI...........7 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....35 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........52 57 61 57 45 36
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 20 10 0 0
TEMP............90 83 81 81 79 78
RH..............60 77 82 82 88 88
20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 7 S 6 S 3 SW 3 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 7 6 5 5
MIX HGT (FT)....4000 800 600 500 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 S 7 W 7 W 5 SW 5 W 5
DISPERSION IDX..35 6 5 2 2 2
LVORI...........1 4 4 5 6 6
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 39.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........30 30 36 70
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC LIKELY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 20 20 60
TEMP............78 82 89 92
RH..............88 82 64 56
20 FT WIND......S 2G5 S 3G6 S 5G7 S 6G9
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1300 3800 5100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6
DISPERSION IDX..2 6 22 37
LVORI...........7 5 3 1
FORECASTER...SCHAPER
REQUESTED BY...DAVID SCHUTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517676.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/10/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DSCHUTT@SFWMD.GOV
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