938
FXUS62 KMLB 141048
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
648 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
- A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK. ABOVE-NORMAL LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH, UP TO AROUND 80% THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
- A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
TODAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTLINE. DEEP MOISTURE HOLDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES (PWAT 2.0-2.1") WHILE
MODELS SHOW A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (PWAT ~ 1.8-1.9).
THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES TODAY (70-80%). PERIODS OF
CONTINUED RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HREF GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SIGNALS STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-1.5" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3.5-4" (5-10% CHANCE) ACROSS AREAS WHICH SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HOLD AROUND -7 TO -8 C, PULSES OF VORTICITY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 50-55
MPH. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY BASED ON RAINFALL TRENDS. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS AN EARLIER START TO SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LATER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
MORE WIDELY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-107, POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 AHEAD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A WET PATTERN CONTINUES. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS ACROSS THE STATE IN VICINITY OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF AND THERE IS NOW A LOW 30%
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEAK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL HIGH RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY (80%). WHILE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
LESS, LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-4" REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. A CONDITIONAL STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SATURATED AIR COLUMN AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED WAVES OF VORTICITY CONTINUE TO PASS
ALOFT, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM THREAT CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED WINDS GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY (M80S-L90S)
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A WAVE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY KEEPING ONE
MORE DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (~70%). BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON, REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES AS WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MAKING WINDS WIDELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD LATE TUESDAY, ESTABLISHING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10-15 KTS INTO MID WEEK. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD
2-3 FT. HIGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
CONTINUED VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WILL LIKELY SEE SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS
& VSBYS SURROUNDING CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW/N 5-10 KTS,
THEN MAY BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL TRANSITION INLAND, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10 KTS.
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF OF
NORTH FL COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH CAM MODELS FROM RUN
TO RUN. CONTINUE USE OF "VICINITY" WORDING AND WILL CONSIDER TEMPO
GROUPS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND AS APPLICABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 75 87 74 / 50 30 80 20
MCO 93 74 90 74 / 70 40 80 30
MLB 89 74 87 76 / 70 50 90 40
VRB 89 71 87 73 / 80 50 90 40
LEE 92 74 89 75 / 80 40 80 30
SFB 93 76 90 75 / 60 30 80 20
ORL 92 76 90 75 / 70 40 80 30
FPR 88 71 87 73 / 80 60 90 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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