383
FXUS62 KMLB 160045
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH, UP TO AROUND 70-80% THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
- A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY AT AROUND 5PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON,
AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93L HAD MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING,
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE
WATCH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, AS CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED IMMENSELY WITH CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVERALL, THOUGH A
CHANCE (~ 20-30%) WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TREASURE COAST OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SHOWERS OR STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, MINOR FLOODING
COULD RESULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INVEST 93L IS PUSHING
ONSHORE NORTH OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. N/NE SHEAR
HAS KEPT PERSISTENT BANDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS S/SW OF THE
CENTER ACROSS AREAS NEAR TO NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO THE
CAPE. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCLUDING UP TO 5-7 INCHES IN NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY NEAR MIMS AND TURNBULL WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. AS LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS FL INTO
TONIGHT, THIS PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
WEST INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE AND VOLUSIA FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 5-7 INCHES THAT MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM
OR TWO ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AS INVEST 93L MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF, NHC IS STILL GIVING THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO MID TO LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL, WAVES
OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PW VALUES UP TO 2-2.3") WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST (UP
TO 70-80%). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSING
INLAND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE
MAIN THREATS INCLUDING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100-105F WEDNESDAY AND 102-107F THURSDAY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING
SLIDES OVER FLORIDA LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS, GUIDED BY THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH DAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE 100-106
DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 93L) IS
PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL AND WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE NE GULF
WEDNESDAY WHERE IT CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40%) FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHERE S/SE WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, EXCEPT UP TO
4 FEET OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THEN S/SE INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
WITH MORE NORMAL SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT, AS
INVEST 93L CROSSES NORTH FLORIDA ON THE WAY TO THE GULF. CAMS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS TO BE THE TREASURE COAST (VRB/FPR/SUA), WHERE MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WEDNESDAY, A RETURN TO THE STANDARD SEA BREEZE REGIME IS FORECAST,
WITH A COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING, BEFORE MOVING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. S/SE FLOW PREVAILING, REMAINING AROUND
12KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 89 76 90 / 20 60 10 70
MCO 74 91 76 92 / 30 80 20 80
MLB 76 90 78 89 / 30 70 20 70
VRB 73 90 75 90 / 30 70 20 70
LEE 74 90 76 92 / 40 80 20 80
SFB 74 91 76 93 / 30 70 20 80
ORL 74 91 76 93 / 30 80 20 80
FPR 73 89 75 89 / 30 70 30 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LEAHY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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