394
FXUS62 KMLB 160704
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
- DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH DAILY
RAIN CHANCES (60-80%). HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
- A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING 102-107 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
TODAY... THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS
INVEST 93L MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED. HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS WHILE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO ADVECT
ABOVE 700MB. MORE SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ROUNDS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
COVERAGE HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR (60-70%) WITH DRIER FORECAST
TRENDS FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF I-95. WHILE MORE ORGANIZED TALL
STORM GROWTH COULD BE HINDERED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DRY AIR ALOFT, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR QUICK UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH CAN OVERCOME POOR
MID LEVELS AND MIX WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 45-50 MPH, AND SMALL
HAIL.
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AREAS WHICH SEE LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY COULD SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES (L-M70S) REMAIN MILD WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
THURSDAY... A WAVE OF MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY
KEEPING ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS. WHILE ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, STEERING FLOW SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (70-80%). OVERALL STORM PARAMETERS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
FORECAST TODAY, AND ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES INCREASING BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY... BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY, SPREADING THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RELAX
SLIGHTLY. WHILE A DRIER AIR COLUMN IS EXPECTED, CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN
THE FORM OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HINTS OF A WETTER PATTERN RETURNING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY AND TOMORROW
SLACKEN SOME BY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS 2-3 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THOUGH INVEST 93L
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY (W/NW) FROM ECFL, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. LIGHT SE/S FLOW CONTINUES THRU
EARLY MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING DURING THE DAY ON
WED. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS AREAWIDE, AND A LITTLE
GUSTIER ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES. A GRADUAL RETURN ON THIS DAY TO
THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE REGIME, THOUGH HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE INTERIOR AND ESP WCFL INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POP
POTENTIAL HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY FOR TEMPO GROUPS, BUT DO HAVE SOME VCSH/VCTS
AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10
MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10
MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10
VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10
LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10
SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10
ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10
FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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