873
FXUS62 KMLB 170520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
- DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH DAILY
RAIN CHANCES (60-80%). HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
- RAIN CHANCES THEN TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 102-107 DEGREES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (AT OR ABOVE 108
DEGREES) FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS INLAND AND WITH MOIST AIRMASS (PW VALUES ~2.0")
IN PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AT A STEADY PACE TOWARD THE N/NW,
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THIS
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN INTO THE EVENING, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN LOW END RAIN CHANCES
(AROUND 20-30 PERCENT) ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT, AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO MAY STILL MOVE ONSHORE. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF 2-2.3") LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, AND SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY
OF HIGHER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE FIRST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING AND LIFTING
N/NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE AROUND 60-80 PERCENT THURSDAY, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES DECREASE INTO FRIDAY TO AROUND 1.6-
1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO END THE WORK
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND
UP TO 40-50 PERCENT INLAND.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S THURSDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 102-107 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IMPACTS LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND (POTENTIALLY NEARING
UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR) ON SUNDAY. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO THEREFORE RISE, AND MAY REACH HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108-112 DEGREES), MAINLY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY
MONDAY, BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT A WETTER PATTERN
MAY RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
TONIGHT-MONDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR
TO NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY. WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUT OF THE
S/SE, AND THEN BECOME PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET, POTENTIALLY FALLING TO
1-2 FEET ON MONDAY.
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS
INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DECREASE AND BE BELOW NORMAL INTO LATE THIS WEEK
AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY, WITH
SE WINDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. VCSH POSSIBLE
FROM MLB SOUTHWARD AFTER 14Z, TRANSITIONING TO VCTS AFTER 18Z AS
THE ECSB DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, PROMPTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AFTER 19Z, AND TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED FOR VIS AND CIG
REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING,
SO WILL REASSESS WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 03Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AT 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 91 75 / 50 10 30 0
MCO 93 76 94 75 / 70 20 40 10
MLB 90 78 90 77 / 50 10 20 0
VRB 90 75 91 74 / 50 10 20 0
LEE 92 77 94 77 / 60 30 50 10
SFB 93 77 94 76 / 70 20 40 0
ORL 93 77 94 77 / 70 20 40 10
FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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