904
FXUS62 KMLB 170612
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
212 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
- DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TODAY, SUPPORTING HIGH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES (50-70%). HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
- RAIN CHANCES THEN TREND TO BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 102-107 DEGREES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (AT OR ABOVE 108
DEGREES) FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT-FRI...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BRUSH THE COAST IN
THE SSE STEERING FLOW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CONTINUED MILD AND
MUGGY WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF ECFL THRU LATE
WORK-WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING WINDS 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. REMAINING MOIST FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH
PWATS SURGING NORTH OF 2 INCHES, THEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON FRI. KEEPING 50-70PCT FOR POPS ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING
AREA TODAY (HIGHEST INLAND FROM THE COAST), THEN CHANCES DECREASE
INTO FRI (20-30PCT COAST & 30-50PCT INTERIOR). ALOFT, HEIGHT
RISES OCCUR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD
THE PENINSULA, THOUGH STILL RATHER COOL TEMPS ALOFT FORECAST (-7C
TO -9C AT H500). PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS REMAIN OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY
40-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS - MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND
OTHER PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS.
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE L90S TODAY
AND L-M90S ON FRI. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 102-107
DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 70S WITH
CONDITIONS HUMID.
SAT-TUE...THE BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PENINSULA ON
SAT, THEN PUSHES INTO THE GULF SUN AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MON-
TUE, RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DECREASES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA SAT-SUN, THEN INTO SOUTH FL MON-TUE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND ON MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S, FALLING SLIGHTLY TO THE L90S EVERYWHERE ON TUE. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW U90S OVER THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE PRESENTLY
CAPPED PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE GRIDS AT 107F FOR THE EXTENDED, BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME READINGS ABOVE 108F WHICH COULD REACH
HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS - ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ANY RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME FROM SEA BREEZE PASSAGE NEAR THE COAST AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THIS WEEKEND (HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR). POPS FORECAST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 70S WITH CONDITIONS
MUGGY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
TODAY-MON...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIXATED NEAR TO JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS INTO LATE WEEK, SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT ESE/SE FLOW THRU SAT, BECOMING
LIGHT OFFSHORE SAT-SUN NIGHTS - THOUGH DAILY SEA BREEZES WILL
TRANSITION FLOW ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS THIS WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS TYPICALLY AOB 15 KTS. SEAS
PRIMARILY 2-3 FT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE AGAIN, TODAY, THEN
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI-SUN (BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES),
THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN ON MON. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS REMAIN CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY, WITH
SE WINDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. VCSH POSSIBLE
FROM MLB SOUTHWARD AFTER 14Z, TRANSITIONING TO VCTS AFTER 18Z AS
THE ECSB DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, PROMPTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AFTER 19Z, AND TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED FOR VIS AND CIG
REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING,
SO WILL REASSESS WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 03Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AT 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 91 75 / 50 10 30 0
MCO 93 76 94 75 / 70 20 40 10
MLB 90 78 90 77 / 50 10 20 0
VRB 90 75 91 74 / 50 10 20 0
LEE 92 77 94 77 / 60 30 50 10
SFB 93 77 94 76 / 70 20 40 0
ORL 93 77 94 77 / 70 20 40 10
FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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