622
FXUS62 KMLB 180000
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
- DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER FLORIDA TODAY, SUPPORTING HIGH RAIN
CHANCES UP TO 50-70%, HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
- RAIN CHANCES THEN TREND TO BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
REST OF TODAY...DECENT SPREAD OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS HAVE
BEEN PUSHING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE, BRINGING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND A FEW
GUSTS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TREKKING TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS REMAIN OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY MOVING ALONG AT A DECENTLY ENOUGH CLIP TO MINIMIZE
FLOODING POTENTIAL, SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S-L90S COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY RESULTING IN
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 101-106 DEGREES, BUT ONE OR TWO HOT
SPOTS COULD SEE HIGHER BRIEFLY HIGHER VALUES.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...HEAT BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN AS FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC
HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND THE CENTER OF MID-
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER FLORIDA. SUBSIDENCE PLUS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP A BIT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CREEPING
INTO THE L-M90S FRIDAY, THEN CLOSER TO THE U90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTH,
THEN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY. ALL TOGETHER, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 101-107 FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE TO
102-110 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHEST TO THE NORTH AND INLAND,
WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. LOWER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND INLAND A BIT FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST WHERE A SLIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT PROVIDES A LITTLE RELIEF. RAIN CHANCES THE
LOWEST WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT JUST 10-30
PCT, THEN INCREASING A BIT TO 20-40 PCT SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES, HIGHEST INLAND AND TO THE NORTH ALL THREE DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, THEN SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THEN
RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS WESTWARD, DECREASING
SUBSIDENCE, BUT HEAT CONCERNS LOOK TO CONTINUE MONDAY WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAINING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN SURGES OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HEAT IMPACTS THEN DECREASE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES RETURN AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH EVEN
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING PWATS WELL OVER 2" BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT 70% GIVEN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME, BUT
COULD DEFINITELY SEE THESE INCREASE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN CONTROL OF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WEAKENING THROUGH
THE WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM S-SE TODAY TO SW-SE THIS
WEEKEND, THEN SW-S EARLY NEXT WEEK, FAVORING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OFFSHORE IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WITH THE LAND BREEZE. HIGHER RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TODAY, THEN A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING N WILL CROSS MCO THROUGH 01Z
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS. INSERTED VCTS FOR MLB/TIX AS EASTERN
FLANK OF GUST FRONT HAS BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. OTHERWISE, VFR
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR FRI WILL LOWER RAIN/THUNDER PROBABILITIES
WITH S/SE FLOW 7-10 KNOTS INTERIOR AND 10-14 KNOTS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 91 75 92 / 10 20 0 20
MCO 76 94 75 95 / 20 30 10 20
MLB 78 90 77 90 / 10 20 0 10
VRB 76 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 10
LEE 76 94 76 94 / 30 30 10 30
SFB 76 94 75 95 / 20 30 0 20
ORL 77 94 76 96 / 20 30 10 20
FPR 76 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...KELLY
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