128
FXUS62 KMLB 181348
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 108 FAHRENHEIT. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW-NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING
ACROSS THE AREA.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
STARTING ON MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND DUE TO EXPECTED HEAT IMPACTS FROM A
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM NOON TO 6PM.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN WELL-HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN IMPACT
MOST INDIVIDUALS, SO BE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER SAFETY MEASURES TO
PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REST OF FORECAST. ADDED A LOW (20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TODAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, AND NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE RAINFALL.
THE GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE A
SEA BREEZE COLLISION MAY OCCUR. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
100 TO 107 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 108. CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DOES REMAIN LOW, SO DECIDED AGAINST A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED.
WITH THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
PLAN TO REMAIN WELL-HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE
OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN IMPACT MOST INDIVIDUALS, SO BE SURE TO TAKE
THE PROPER SAFETY MEASURES TO PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH
IS FAIRLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, GREATER HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVERHEAD OF
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND ITS RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95 ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS LOW (40 PERCENT), BUT IF ANY WERE TO
DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE ALLOWING FOR GREATER
DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO NEAR AND/OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, MEANING RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ALIKE SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT HEAT
STRESS. ADEQUATE HYDRATION, FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND AIR
CONDITIONING, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND SHIFTING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM THE HOURS OF PEAK HEAT WILL BE KEY TO
PREVENTING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOWS
REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD OUT ACROSS
THE GULF INTO THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF
PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND GREATER LOCALLY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STUCK
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT STORM THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP, BUT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAT CONCERNS PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S
AND PEAK HEAT INDICES STILL FORECAST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE GREATER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL HELP LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT INDICES REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
100 TO 107 IN THE EXTENDED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS LOCALLY AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THIS WEEKEND, BACKING TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS, WITH A RETURN OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIMIT
VISIBILITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, THOUGH SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MCO/ISM/SFB AND A TEMPO FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA AT LEE FROM AROUND 22-0Z. ALONG THE COAST,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KTS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, REMAINING GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 0
MCO 95 76 96 76 / 40 20 20 0
MLB 90 77 91 76 / 20 10 10 0
VRB 91 75 91 73 / 20 10 10 0
LEE 93 77 94 77 / 40 30 30 0
SFB 95 76 95 76 / 40 20 20 0
ORL 95 77 96 77 / 40 20 20 0
FPR 90 75 91 73 / 20 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-
058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...HALEY/CORNELL
AVIATION...LEAHY
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