417
FXUS62 KMLB 181919
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
UP TO 110 AND MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH MOISTURE APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
CURRENTLY...QUITE THE STARK CONTRAST TO ONLY A COUPLE DAYS AGO,
WITH JUST A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE MAIN HEADLINE IS NOW THE
HEAT, AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES TEMPERATURES, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES, IS MAKING FOR SOME GROSS CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 6 PM FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 108
AND MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE L-M90S THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE PWATS ARE MUCH HIGHER TO THE NORTH (STILL UP TO AROUND 2") THAN
DOWN SOUTH (AROUND 1.6" AND DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE COAST),
MOST OF THE DRIER AIR CONTRIBUTION IN THE THE MID-LEVELS AND THE
SURFACE REMAINS PRETTY HUMID. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA AS IS THE CU-FIELD, EXPECT ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE, WITH THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES AND
GREATER HEATRISK IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE RELIEF. THE DRIER MID- LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH, HAVE BEEN VERY HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. CONTINUING 20-40 PCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST (SUCH AS THE ARE) ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IN THE LATE EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION, BUT
THESE CHANCES MAY TURN OUT TO BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC AS ENTRAINMENT
KILLS UPDRAFTS. THAT SAID, ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVERHEAD OF FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND ITS RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95 ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS LOW (40
PERCENT), BUT IF ANY WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE ALLOWING FOR
GREATER DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT MORE
THIS WEEKEND, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
WILL PROVIDE A SMALL OFFSET, COMPLICATING THE PROSPECT OF REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND
COULD PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE
AGAIN FORECAST TO NEAR AND/OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, MEANING RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ALIKE SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT HEAT
STRESS. ADEQUATE HYDRATION, FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND AIR
CONDITIONING, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND SHIFTING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM THE HOURS OF PEAK HEAT WILL BE KEY TO
PREVENTING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOWS
REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD OUT ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE WORK WEEK,
ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND GREATER
LOCALLY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STUCK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH A 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT STORM THREATS
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP, BUT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAT CONCERNS PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S
AND PEAK HEAT INDICES STILL FORECAST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE GREATER MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL HELP LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT INDICES REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
100 TO 107 IN THE EXTENDED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ALBEIT HOT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS VEER
FROM SE-S SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO S-SW TO THE NORTH, BACKING TO
THE SE-E EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND, AT 5-15 KTS. THE ATLANTIC HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD AND
FLORIDA. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN
VERY HIGH STORMS CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD DISRUPT
FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE LOWER TODAY,
RANGING FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AND MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT
KMCO/KSFB/KISM DUE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY (UP TO 30-40%), AND
HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR TSRA IMPACTS AT KLEE FROM
22-24Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ADDITIONAL TEMPO GROUPS
ARE NEEDED FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY. WINDS S/SE AROUND 5-8
KNOTS, BECOMING E/SE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 20
MCO 76 96 76 97 / 20 20 0 30
MLB 77 91 76 93 / 10 10 0 20
VRB 75 91 74 92 / 10 10 0 10
LEE 77 94 77 94 / 30 30 0 30
SFB 76 95 76 96 / 20 20 0 30
ORL 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 0 30
FPR 75 91 73 92 / 10 10 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-
058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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