560
FXUS62 KMLB 141314
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
914 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
- HOT CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
- A 30-50% COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY ALONG THE ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND INTO THE INTERIOR. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
OF 45-55 MPH.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
JUST A QUICK UPDATE AFTER ANALYSIS OF TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE BARRIER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF A 108F HEAT INDEX, PLACES
IMMEDIATELY NEAR AND WEST OF THE ADVANCING SEA BREEZE, WITHIN
LARGE URBAN AREAS, AND NEAR INTERIOR LAKES HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH 105-109F FEELS-LIKE TEMPS. ACTUAL HIGHS 92-96F.
BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C AND REMAIN
WELL HYDRATED TODAY.
HREF MEMBERS STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MORNING'S XMR
SOUNDING (14/10Z) STILL INDICATES THAT AMPLE DRY AIR EXISTS IN
THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 45-55 MPH IN THE
HEALTHIEST STORMS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY,
SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. DESPITE AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 2"), LIGHT WINDS,
LITTLE SHEAR, AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED FOR AUGUST, WITH POPS AROUND 50% OR LESS AREA-WIDE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
50-55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT. DCAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 1100-1200 J/KG. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 9-10 PM, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID-90S. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE INTERIOR, WITH HIGHS AROUND 95 DEGREES. HUMID CONDITIONS, LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PEAK
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 103-109 DEGREES TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM. WHILE THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES UP
TO 108 DEGREES OR MORE, CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE THERE, AT 103-
107 DEGREES. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM, AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF, AS SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS. OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
FRIDAY...RINSE AND REPEAT SET UP FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO DRIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF AND SLIGHTLY LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS ARE FORECAST AROUND 20-40%, WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A
THREAT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
1200 J/KG AGAIN. ANY CONVECTION WILL PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE BEFORE THE
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES INLAND.
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO, THOUGH STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID-90S. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN FOR BREVARD AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD, WITH THE ADDITION OF OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. CURRENTLY, THE TREASURE COAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR FUTURE UPDATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND, WHILE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN US AND
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALOFT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2+") IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA FROM DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO MONDAY.
NEAR NORMAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY (30-60%) ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BECOMING 60-70%.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOT CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH PEAK HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO REMAIN BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING THE
BAHAMAS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY AWARE AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES. BE SURE TO STICK TO
OFFICIAL SOURCES FOR INFORMATION AND REMEMBER THAT WE ARE ENTERING
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. A TURN PRIOR TO REACHING THE
BAHAMAS WOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THAT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. BY MONDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIN. SEAS 1-3FT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN, SWELLS FROM ERIN WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE STORM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MLB
NORTHWARD TODAY, AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS AT DAB AND
THE INTERIOR TERMINALS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z/19Z. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
A PROB30 AT TIX/MLB WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. HERE, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO EAST (7-10 KTS)
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PASSES. INTERIOR CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z/01Z WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 93 77 / 40 20 30 20
MCO 95 78 96 77 / 50 20 40 20
MLB 92 78 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
VRB 93 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10
LEE 94 78 95 79 / 40 20 40 20
SFB 95 78 96 78 / 40 20 40 20
ORL 95 78 96 79 / 50 20 40 20
FPR 92 74 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-
058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...LAW
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