876
FXUS62 KMLB 150510
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
110 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 110F ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH 30%
TO 50% COVERAGE, MOST PREVALENT OVER THE INTERIOR. CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD 50-70% THIS WEEKEND.
- A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, HIGHER SURF, AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARRIVES MONDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. ERIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE REMAINING EAST OF FLORIDA, BUT RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
APPROXIMATELY 28 DEG N FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, OVER FLORIDA, AND
WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. H5 HEIGHTS ARE AS MUCH AS +2
SD OVER FLORIDA. TOTAL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER, A REGION
OF DRIER AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA ABOVE H7.
THE NEAR-SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE A FRONT DISSIPATES TO
OUR NORTH, ITS RIBBON OF LINGERING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, 5 KFT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, A TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST U.S.
IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO CAUSE A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES REINFORCING THIS WEAKNESS INTO NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN, CURRENTLY ON A PATH WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
MDR (MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION), SHOULD CURVE NORTHWESTWARD AND TOWARD
THIS BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK.
A PREPONDERANCE OF GRAND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO,
BUT THERE ARE OUTLIERS THAT ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE, A WATCHFUL EYE IS STILL REQUIRED.
FOR FLORIDA, THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
AND MOISTURE VALUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
THIS AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...
HOT WITH SCATTERED STORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. SOUNDS PRETTY
TYPICAL FOR AUGUST IN FLORIDA... BUT THERE ARE SOME WRINKLES. FIRST
OFF, THE HEAT IS A LITTLE MORE UNBEARABLE THAN USUAL DUE TO DELAYED
STORM TIMING AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS,
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEG F IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN NORMAL DUE TO
SOMEWHAT HOSTILE DRY ENTRAINMENT ALOFT. HOWEVER, SURFACE CAPE IS
SUBSTANTIAL, SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO GROW TALL ENOUGH
SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING OVER POORLY DRAINED AND URBAN LOCATIONS. THE FOCUS OF
STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL APPEAR TO RESIDE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH LESSER CHANCES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEEKEND...
AN OLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DISSIPATES, BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION SLIDES
DOWN THE PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES (50-
70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL
THINK THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TRIES TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR,
BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATION NEARER TO THE COAST SHOULD EVEN IT OUT A
BIT.
DESPITE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, IT STILL LOOKS UNUSUALLY HOT WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEG F, LEADING, POTENTIALLY, TO ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE A/C AND STAY HYDRATED!
NEXT WEEK...
BASED ON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST, ERIN SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
FLORIDA - SPARING THE SUNSHINE STATE OF DIRECT WIND/RAIN IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, A LONG-PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WILL DELIVER DANGEROUS SURF AND BOATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT
A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS AT OUR BEACHES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME! IN PARTICULAR, THOSE VISITING THE DAYTONA BEACH AREA IN
THE DAYS LEADING UP TO NEXT WEEKEND'S (AUG 22-23) MAJOR OUTDOOR
EVENTS WILL NEED TO HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH PATROL AND
LIFEGUARDS!
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ALIKE ARE CAUTIONED THAT WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT ERIN REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES. IF ANYTHING CHANGES, WE WILL KEEP YOU
POSTED AT WEATHER.GOV/MLB.
KEPT DAILY PM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AT 50-60% THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME HEAT RELIEF TO
OUR BEACHSIDE LOCALES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SLIGHTLY MODIFIED] FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIN. SEAS 1-3FT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN, SWELLS FROM ERIN WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE STORM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT SFB/MCO/ISM/LEE AFTER 20Z. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION NEAR DAB/TIX, BUT HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP VCTS INHERITED FROM THE 00Z TAF. INTERIOR CONVECTION LINGERS
A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNSET WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 30
MCO 96 77 96 76 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 20
VRB 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 20 50 30
SFB 96 78 95 77 / 40 20 50 30
ORL 96 78 96 77 / 40 20 50 30
FPR 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...LAW
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