322
FXUS62 KMLB 151040
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
WITH MORE TYPICAL HEAT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 11
AM UNTIL 7 PM FOR PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 105-109 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN
INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING.
- A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARRIVES MONDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. ERIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE REMAINING EAST OF FLORIDA, BUT RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
FLORIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES/NORTHEAST US INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
PLUS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A DYING
FRONT WEAKENS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, RESULTING
IN A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE BARELY DISCERNIBLE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO THE SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THEY MOVE INLAND, WITH A COLLISION VERY NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE PENINSULA. WHILE THE LOW- LEVELS CAN BE DESCRIBED AS
JUICY, WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING OFF IN THE THE U70S BEFORE
AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGS THEM DOWN TO THE M70S, ENTRAINMENT FROM
DRIER AIR ABOVE 800MB WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT HURDLE TO UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES. HIGHEST BUT BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% ARE
ALONG THE INLAND SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SAVE THE ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM (CHANCES 20% OR LESS) CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CHALLENGE, INSTABILITY BECOMES
PLENTIFUL BY THE AFTERNOON AS USUAL, AND THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS OF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP, RESULTING IN STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 45-55
MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY IN NON-EXISTENT
STEERING FLOW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1-3" OF RAINFALL
LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
THAT HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACH INTO THE L-M90S, PUSHING TOWARDS THE U90S INLAND, WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
105-109 DEGREES, AND MODERATE TO EXTREME HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS AGAIN BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND LIMIT TIME IN THE
SUN DURING THIS PERIOD. THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS IN CARS FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.
THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING FURTHER WEAKENS THE ATLANTIC
HIGH. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN TO BEGIN MAKING A
NORTHWARD TURN INTO THIS WEAKNESS AROUND SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST TENUOUSLY TAKES CONTROL,
PRODUCING VAGUELY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. HIGHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONT TO OUR NORTH GRADUALLY
DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY, THEN CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE USUAL STORM THREATS OF GUSTY
WINDS, DEADLY LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE (WILL NEED
TO SEE IF WE CAN HOLD ON TO THE SMALL HAIL THREAT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES A LITTLE), BUT GIVEN THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ZERO STEERING FLOW, THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER DON'T INCREASE ENOUGH SATURDAY TO
KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES MUCH, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE L-M90S
LEADING TO PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 103-109, MAYBE HIGHER IN A FEW
SPOTS, AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES
COME DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELP A LITTLE, BUT HIGHS IN THE L-M90S
(AT LEAST ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MID THIS TIME) REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
AND PEAK HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 102-107 ARE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE
CANADA IN TO THE MARITIMES, REINFORCING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC, AND FURTHER OPENING THE GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN INTO THIS GAP, KEEPING DIRECT IMPACTS WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER,
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC WATER AND BEACHES MONDAY, PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF
INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR MARINERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ERIN WILL REMAIN WELL OUT TO SEA,
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR FORECAST
FOR UPDATES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS FLORIDA A LITTLE BETWEEN THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND (HOPEFULLY) DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN,
ENCHAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW A BIT THAT GRADUALLY BACKS NORTHERLY
AS ERIN PASSES (HOPEFULLY) WELL TO OUR EAST. BOUTS OF HIGHER AND
LOWER MOISTURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA IN THIS FLOW, THOUGH WHEN AND
TO WHAT EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, THOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE A
FUNCTION OF THE NBM TURNING MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS INTO AN AVERAGE
FORECAST (PLUS ITS USUAL OVER-PREDICTION IN THE LONG TERM) THAN
HOW THINGS WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSPIRE. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS,
EXPECT TO SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON A
FEW OF THESE DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
STABLE AT JUST A HAIR ABOVE NORMAL, RESULTING IN TYPICAL HEAT FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEAK, RESULTING IN A VERY
LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS TOWARDS FLORIDA. WITH THE LIGHT
FLOW, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND
LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY OR SO. WHILE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TURN NORTH THIS WEEKEND AND
PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEXT WEEK, LARGE SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY AND QUICKLY CAUSE
BOATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE, BECOMING HAZARDOUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN ERIN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, BUT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR CHANGES, ESPECIALLY IF VENTURING BEYOND
THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE DAY.
LIGHT EAST WINDS THEN DEVELOP AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT SFB/MCO/ISM/LEE
AFTER 20Z. VCTS ALSO REMAINS MENTIONED AT DAB/TIX FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECASTED COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR LEE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 30
MCO 96 77 96 76 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 20
VRB 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 96 78 95 77 / 40 20 60 30
SFB 96 78 95 77 / 40 20 50 30
ORL 96 78 96 77 / 40 20 50 30
FPR 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LAW
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