105
FXUS62 KMLB 152356
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
756 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- UNUSUALLY HOT: HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING
105-110 WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS, STAY WELL-HYDRATED, WEAR LIGHT-COLORED, LIGHTWEIGHT
CLOTHING, AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
- BEACH & BOATING HAZARDS NEXT WEEK: SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN TO
BRING A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS STARTING
MONDAY. THIS THREAT - ALONG WITH HIGHER SURF, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, AND HAZARDOUS SEAS - WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- MORE UNSETTLED: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR, WHERE A LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING EXISTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
ON THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ITS AXIS
OF GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED ON FLORIDA. ACCORDING TO
THE 15/15Z XMR SOUNDING, THIS MORNING'S H5 HEIGHT WAS 596 DAM,
WHICH EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM MOVING AVERAGE FOR TODAY'S DATE (AND MAY
ALSO BE A DAILY RECORD). ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WAS
SEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, AND DRIER AIR ABOVE 10 KFT.
THE NEARBY SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE AXIS WILL SOON BREAK DOWN AS
LOWER PRESSURES BEGIN TO EMANATE FROM ERIN.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND IS STILL
FORECAST TO CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
CONCURRENTLY, H5 HEIGHT MAXIMA SHOULD RETROGRADE AND RELOCATE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
THIS CONFIGURATION WILL ALLOW HURRICANE ERIN TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. LOCAL
COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
AN AREA OF WEAK PVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE
ON THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER, AN INCREASING CLUSTER OF MEMBERS ADVECT SOMEWHAT LESSER
TOTAL MOISTURE OVERHEAD BY AROUND TUESDAY AS ERIN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE.
ONCE ERIN EXITS THE PICTURE, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A BRANCH OF THE SUPPRESSED BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD OVER
THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO, MOISTURE VALUES
SHOULD RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME MEMBERS ADVERTISE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ANTILLES IN 6-7 DAYS. WHILE
THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER AFRICA, IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON AS WE ENTER PEAK HURRICANE SEASON.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
NOW - SUNDAY...
OUR OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY STAGNANT. WITH AN INCREASING
TOTAL MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE DISTRICT, THE
SPARSE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE TODAY (20-40%) RAMPS UP
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 50-70%
(20-40% ELSEWHERE). THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS
REMAINING NEAR AND NORTH OF GREATER ORLANDO. THIS LENDS TOWARD
50-70% COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, GREATEST
OVER THE INTERIOR.
WIND FIELDS ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE, SO SLOW-MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING HEAVY RAIN TALLIES. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE REVEALED THAT THOSE WHO GET
STUCK UNDER A STORM MAY PICK UP OVER 4" OF RAIN IN SHORT ORDER.
WHILE THIS WOULD OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS, THESE AMOUNTS WOULD
CAUSE AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS OVER
URBAN AREAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY. PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PATTERN, WE ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY, PEAK HEAT INDICES MAY "EASE"
(INDISTINGUISHABLY) TO 101-107 DEG F. CONTINUE TO CHECK THE BACK
SEAT FOR CHILDREN AND PETS, AND STAY HYDRATED IF WORKING OR
PLAYING OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY - NEXT FRIDAY...
COASTAL IMPACTS FROM ERIN:
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR EAST,
DISTANT HURRICANE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT AT OUR BEACHES AND ON THE
OPEN WATER. A LONG-PERIOD SWELL IS STILL FORECAST TO GET HERE ON
MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONCE IT ARRIVES, THE
RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL IMMEDIATELY BECOME
HIGH AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE SWELL RELAXES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, SURF WILL BUILD WITH BREAKERS OF 4 TO 7 FEET FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, GREATEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 8-FOOT
BREAKERS MAY OCCUR FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO CAPE CANAVERAL. A COUPLE
OF THINGS TO NOTE - FIRST, THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BEGIN
WELL BEFORE SURF HEIGHTS PEAK. SECOND, MINOR BEACH AND/OR DUNE
EROSION MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THESE RISKS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND.
WHILE THE WEATHER MAY BE INVITING, PLEASE DO NOT BE COMPLACENT. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL AND STAY OUT OF THE
OCEAN IF SO DIRECTED.
FORECAST:
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS COURTESY OF ERIN'S PASSAGE
OFFSHORE. NEAR-NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE FORECAST
TO BRIEFLY DIP ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL THEREAFTER.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THOSE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY: LOWEST
ON TUESDAY, THEN SLOWLY RAMPING CLOSER TO NORMAL. IN FACT, BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY FINALLY REACH OUR COASTAL LOCALES LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW PICKS UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDICES FROM 100-107 DEG F LOOK TO STICK AROUND MOST
AFTERNOONS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF FROM THAT AT THE COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SLIGHTLY MODIFIED] GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEAK, RESULTING IN A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS
TOWARDS FLORIDA. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY
OR SO. WHILE HURRICANE ERIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TURN NORTH THIS
WEEKEND AND PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEXT WEEK, A
LARGE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AND
QUICKLY CAUSE BOATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE, BECOMING HAZARDOUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS FRESHEN A BIT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN ERIN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, BUT
SEAS AND INLET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TS HAS CLEARED FROM ECFL THIS EVENING, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO THE ECSB WHICH DEVELOPS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS AS IT MOVES
INLAND, COLLIDING WITH THE WCSB ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 22Z.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON- EVENING TS INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY, TO
50-70% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND 20-40% TO THE
SOUTH, LOWEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE DRIER AIR REMAINS.
INITIAL TS/SH COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 16Z-18Z, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE NEAR TO JUST WEST OF KMCO AND AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN
20Z-23Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TS IMPACTS TO PERSIST INVOF
KMCO AND AREA TERMINALS AS LATE AS 02Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 93 77 90 / 20 50 30 70
MCO 78 96 77 94 / 20 60 40 70
MLB 78 92 78 91 / 10 30 10 60
VRB 75 93 75 93 / 10 20 10 50
LEE 79 93 78 92 / 30 70 50 70
SFB 78 95 77 93 / 20 60 40 70
ORL 78 95 78 93 / 20 60 40 70
FPR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...HALEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page