971
FXUS62 KMLB 161035
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
635 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
- UNUSUALLY HOT: A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECT FROM 11AM-7PM TODAY FOR
VOLUSIA, LAKE, ORANGE, SEMINOLE, OSCEOLA, AND BREVARD COUNTIES.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES.
- BEACH & BOATING HAZARDS NEXT WEEK: SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN TO
BRING A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS STARTING
MONDAY. THIS THREAT - ALONG WITH HIGHER SURF, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, AND HAZARDOUS SEAS - WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- MORE UNSETTLED: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
TODAY... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE, AND AN ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL SINK ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALOFT, MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN. RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE FAVORED NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4 (50-70%), WHILE MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WHICH CAN INTERACT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 45-50 MPH. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" IN SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
STORMS.
BEYOND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE HAZARDS, AN EMPHASIS REMAINS ON HEAT
IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. ADDED
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO
109 DEGREES, AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TO INCLUDE AREAS
FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD. A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK
EXISTS FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AND AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY. THIS LEVEL
OF HEAT AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO "COOL" THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING IN THE 80S EVEN BEYOND 10 PM. MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST, REMAINING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO, EARLY SUNDAY. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW SOME AS IT
BEGINS A NORTHWARD TURN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES REMAIN WELL
CLUSTERED, KEEPING HURRICANE ERIN WELL EAST OF FLORIDA. OF NOTE,
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTERACTS WITH MORE SHEAR,
UNDERGOING A SERIES OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WHILE DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE NOT FORECAST LOCALLY, SIGNIFICANT COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL (~10-14
SECONDS) IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE MONDAY, AND SEVERAL DAYS OF LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF WILL BE PRESENT AT AREA
BEACHES. OFFSHORE SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT WILL BECOME DANGEROUS
TO MARINERS BY MID WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS LARGE
BREAKING WAVES ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE MID
WEEK.
MOISTURE SAGGING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POPS BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL
(50- 70%). AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL OFFSHORE, NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (~60%).
RAIN CHANCES THEN TREND TO BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAWIDE
ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, MOSTLY
RANGING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE TO TREND NEAR TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SUNDAY. A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN HEAT INDICES WILL BE
NOTICED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOSTLY RANGE THE MID 70S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... RAIN CHANCE TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE LATE WEEK AS
ERIN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LINGERING
RIP CURRENT THREAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-5 FT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST WITH MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH DISTANT ERIN WILL BUILD SEAS 6-8 FT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS PEAK
AROUND 6-9 FT NEARSHORE AND 8-12 FT OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE INTO
LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEARSHORE,
WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH 14Z, TURNING EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FIRST AT COASTAL TERMINALS THEN SPREADING INLAND TO MCO/SFB IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD POP-UP SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MCO/SFB/LEE BTWN
16Z-20Z THEN HIGHEST COVERAGE HERE DEVELOPING AFT 20Z FROM THE
SEA BREEZE COLLISION. CONTINUED TS IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT MCO
THROUGH 02Z. DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 77 90 77 / 50 40 70 20
MCO 96 77 94 77 / 60 40 70 20
MLB 92 77 92 78 / 30 20 60 30
VRB 93 75 92 75 / 20 10 50 20
LEE 95 77 92 78 / 70 40 70 20
SFB 95 77 92 77 / 60 40 70 20
ORL 96 77 93 78 / 60 40 70 20
FPR 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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