767
FXUS62 KMLB 171045
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- BEACH & BOATING HAZARDS THIS WEEK: SWELLS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE
ERIN TO BRING A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
STARTING MONDAY. THIS THREAT - ALONG WITH HIGHER SURF, THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, AND HAZARDOUS SEAS -
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK.
- MORE UNSETTLED: SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
TODAY... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY, INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FIRST FORECAST ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE WILL SEE A BETTER RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
PEAK COVERAGE (~60%) REMAINS FORECAST NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF
I-4 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
WEAK, AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4". POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED OVER ACHIEVING STORM WHICH CAN PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
INTERIOR, AND HIGHS WILL RANGE THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW
TO MID 90S INLAND. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST
BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH 108-109,
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL EXIST WITH SLOW RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... A PATTERN OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUES
ON MONDAY BECOMING ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND. RAIN CHANCES HOLD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, DRIVEN BY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH. THIS WILL ADVECT A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA REDUCING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN VICINITY OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TUESDAY, AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES (~50-60%). TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOLD STEADY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-107 FALL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY RANGE THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE MORE RURAL AREAS MAY BE ABLE
TO TOUCH THE LOW 70S.
INCREASING COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS MAJOR
HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTH TO NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 13-15 SECONDS ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
EARLY MONDAY, AND A HIGH RISK OF NUMEROUS LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT, PERSISTING THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BUILD, AND THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
PRESENT BEFORE SURF HEIGHTS PEAK. HEED THE ADVISE OF LIFEGUARDS AND
BEACH PATROL AND STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN IF SO DIRECTED!
NEARSHORE SEAS DETERIORATE TUESDAY, PEAKING NEAR 6-9 FT ON
WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL BECOME PRESENT IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. ASSOCIATED SWELLS AND CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS, ESPECIALLY DURING OUTGOING TIDE CYCLES.
ATLANTIC BOATING BECOMES INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS AS SEAS 20-60NM OFFSHORE PEAK AROUND 9-12 FT.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS HURRICANE ERIN DEPARTS NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST MOISTURE MAY RETURN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS SCATTERED TO EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS (50-60%) EACH DAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS AGAIN RANGING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
TODAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MID WEEK AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS TUESDAY.
SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, NEARSHORE SEAS INCREASE TO 6-9 FT WHILE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE (9-12 FT). THE CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGEST SEAS PEAKING WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST NEARSHORE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE FORECAST OFFSHORE.
IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED
BY ERIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SCT CU WITH BASES 020-030 AGL AND ISOLD SHRA NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z, OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z THEN SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WINDS
OUT OF THE E OR ENE NEAR 10 KNOTS BTWN 16Z-18Z AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPOS FOR MVFR TSRA AT MCO/SFB/LEE 20Z-23Z WHICH COULD LINGER A
LITTLE PAST 00Z. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR MLB-SUA. THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION TODAY NEAR THE COAST SO
TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 90 77 / 60 30 50 10
MCO 95 76 93 77 / 60 30 70 20
MLB 92 78 91 79 / 50 20 50 20
VRB 93 76 93 77 / 40 20 40 20
LEE 92 77 92 77 / 60 30 60 10
SFB 93 76 92 77 / 60 30 60 20
ORL 94 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20
FPR 93 74 93 75 / 40 10 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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