093  
FXUS62 KMLB 181744  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
144 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
- INCOMING SWELLS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL BRING A HIGH  
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
- ROUGH POUNDING SURF AS SWELLS BUILD TUE-WED BRINGING MINOR  
BEACH AND DUNE EROSION WITH 5-8 FOOT BREAKERS.  
 
- VERY DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEAR INLETS MID  
WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ESP NEAR THE COAST. A NE  
WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE INLAND WITH  
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVE.  
WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCD WITH A  
DISSIPATING TROUGH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH  
ONE OR MORE FLOOD ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS LOW 90S COAST AND  
LOW-MID 90S INTERIOR WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES UP TO 106. VERY LONG  
PERIOD SWELLS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN ARE STARTING TO BE  
DETECTED AT NOAA BUOY 41009 (20 MILE BUOY) IN ITS SPECTRAL  
DENSITY PLOT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE  
BEACHES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE SURF WILL LOOK INVITING.  
 
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH WITH  
SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE  
AROUND THIS LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIER  
AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT TUE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY  
HOLD STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE L90S ALONG THE COAST AND L-M90S  
INLAND. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE M-U70S WHILE MORE RURAL AREAS MAY  
BE ABLE TO TOUCH THE L70S.  
 
AS SWELLS BUILD, BREAKING WAVES OF 5-8 FEET WILL PRODUCE ROUGH,  
POUNDING SURF WITH MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION ESPECIALLY AROUND  
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 5-7 AM/PM. WILL  
LIKELY NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK. HEED THE ADVISE OF LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH  
PATROL AND STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN IF SO DIRECTED. THE NHC FORECAST  
BRINGS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF ERIN ON TUE NIGHT WHEN IT WILL BE  
LIFTING NORTHWARD, ABOUT 450 MILES OFFSHORE.  
 
THU-SUN...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ERIN  
DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. DEVELOPING LIGHT OFFSHORE  
FLOW WILL FAVOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE  
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME  
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST MOISTURE MAY RETURN. THE CURRENT  
FORECAST FAVORS SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-60%)  
EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE L90S  
ALONG THE COAST AND L-M90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS AS MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN TURNS  
NORTHWARD AND PASSES BY TO THE EAST. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS ITS  
CLOSEST APPROACH TUE NIGHT ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL.  
INCREASINGLY LARGE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT  
TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD THEN EXPAND TO INCLUDE  
THOSE NEARSHORE WATERS AND OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST. THE NEARSHORE  
TREASURE COAST WILL EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY BUT DEVELOPMENT  
OF 7 FT SEAS THERE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL TUE NIGHT. PEAK SEAS WILL  
BE REALIZED ON WED WITH 6-9 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 14 FT WELL  
OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP  
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO  
LATE WEEK AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THU/FRI AS A  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THIS PATTERN  
SHOULD FAVOR OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS LATE IN THE  
DAY/EVENING.  
 
IN PARTICULAR, VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING  
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY ERIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025  
 
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ENVELOPES MOST OF THE PENINSULA THIS  
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CLEARING EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOW BE  
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS INITIALIZED  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THUS HAVE  
ELIMINATED MOST THUNDER AND/OR SHOWER MENTIONS FOR COASTAL  
TERMINALS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AFTER 19Z AS  
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE EAST COAST  
BREEZE. OPTED TO ADD TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL INTERIOR SITES,  
MOST ACTIVITY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE BEYOND LOCAL TERMINALS  
PRIOR TO 00Z. MVFR WITH VERY BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS FORECAST THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT RETURN NORTHEASTERLY  
BEYOND 15Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 78 90 77 90 / 20 40 30 60  
MCO 77 93 77 94 / 20 50 10 60  
MLB 79 91 77 92 / 20 50 30 60  
VRB 77 93 75 93 / 20 50 30 60  
LEE 77 92 77 92 / 20 40 10 60  
SFB 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 20 60  
ORL 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 10 60  
FPR 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 30 60  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
AMZ550-552-575.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
AMZ555.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ570-572.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KELLY  
AVIATION...SCHAPER  
 
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