699
FXUS62 KMLB 190558
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
- NEW: HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA & BREVARD COASTS,
EFFECTIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 5-8 FT BREAKERS & MINOR BEACH/DUNE
EROSION EXPECTED. TREASURE COAST TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS
HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE SWELL.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
FOCUSED ON A COUPLE THINGS FOR THIS EVENING'S UPDATE. FIRST WAS TO
TWEAK COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT
18-24 HR. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT, SO WE MAINTAINED A 20-30% CHANCE IN
THAT AREA. THEN, WE EVER SO SLIGHTLY NUDGED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD
ON TUESDAY (30-50%).
SECOND WAS THE ADDITION OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COASTS, EFFECTIVE AT NOON ON TUESDAY. SWELLS FROM ERIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, LEADING TO 5-8 FT BREAKERS AND MINOR
BEACH/DUNE EROSION AROUND HIGH TIDE. TREASURE COAST COMMUNITIES
WILL LIKELY NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ONCE ERIN'S LATITUDE EXCEEDS
THAT OF GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS. (EARLY WEDNESDAY).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA HAS ALLOWED FOR AN EASY PUSH INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
THAT THE SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WEST OF I-95 AS OF 3 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS. CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT FAVORS A GREATER
RAINFALL THREAT WITH ACTIVITY, THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT OR ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT ABLE TO BE FULLY RULED OUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE BUILDING SEAS AND SWELLS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, RESULTING IN DETERIORATING BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS BREAKING WAVES INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET.
ENTERING THE SURF, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, IS EXTREMELY DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WHILE HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT LOCALLY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS.
INCREASING SEAS AND SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL LEAD TO AN
ONGOING HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH DETERIORATING SURF
CONDITIONS. BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
BEACHES, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR BEACH AND DUNE
EROSION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
AND PM. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SOMETIME
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE
WILL BE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES AND ENTERING THE
SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
ASIDE FROM THE DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY THAT BACK TO OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST
LOCALLY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS
SOME HINTS OF SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM ERIN COUPLED WITH
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCALLY, BUT STILL KEPT RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY, AS ERIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA, MOISTURE RETURNS A BIT WITH POPS
INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT. STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS, WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAINING THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS EACH DAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST NOT
ABLE TO BE FULLY RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 100 TO 105.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS SET-UP WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASY PROGRESSION INLAND OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE, WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION FAVORED FOR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. BASED ON THIS, KEPT POPS 50-70% IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A 50% CHANCE OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WARM
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
PEAK HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AT THE BEACHES, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS HURRICANE ERIN
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
AT THE BEACHES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. CAUTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXERCISED IF PLANNING ON
HEADING TO THE BEACHES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND HEEDING THE ADVICE
OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHWARD FAR EAST OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN BACK TO OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NEARSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 11
FEET AND OFFSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
ERIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WINDS
WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS AT 8 PM TONIGHT, EXPANDS TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 8 AM ON
TUESDAY, AND FINALLY INCLUDES THE NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS
STARTING AT 8 PM ON TUESDAY. THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS ISSUED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, EXTENSIONS IN
TIME WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
OUTSIDE OF THE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS, THERE IS A 40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS EACH DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AROUND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING, REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. NEW GUIDANCE HAS INTRODUCED A
ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD
BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR THESE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND MAY NEED SHORT FUSE AMENDMENTS LATER THIS MORNING
IF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS RECOGNIZED. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 17-22 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AND HAVE KEPT A PREVAILING MENTION OF VCSH. VCSH/VCTS IS FORECAST
AT INLAND TERMINALS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z, MOVING WEST OF THE
GREATER ORLANDO TERMINALS AROUND 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 77 90 75 / 40 20 40 10
MCO 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 50 10
MLB 91 78 92 76 / 50 20 50 20
VRB 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 20
LEE 92 76 93 78 / 40 10 30 10
SFB 91 77 93 77 / 50 20 50 10
ORL 93 78 93 78 / 50 10 50 10
FPR 91 74 93 73 / 50 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
FLZ141-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...LAW
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