456  
FXUS62 KMLB 191056  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
656 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VOLUSIA & BREVARD COASTS, EFFECTIVE THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR 5-8 FT BREAKERS & MINOR BEACH/DUNE EROSION  
EXPECTED. TREASURE COAST TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND  
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC  
WITH A LARGE SWELL.  
 
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS  
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
TODAY-WED...LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS HURRICANE ERIN NORTHWARD,  
REMAINING EAST OF FL. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF  
HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE WED, ABOUT 415  
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. NONETHELESS, SIGNIFICANT COASTAL AND  
BOATING EFFECTS WILL BE FELT HERE. BUILDING SWELLS FROM HURRICANE  
ERIN WILL LEAD TO AN ONGOING HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH  
BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING ROUGH POUNDING SURF WITH  
MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE  
CYCLES WHICH ARE OCCURRING NOW BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM AND AGAIN 5 TO 7  
PM. (THERE ARE 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES PER 24HR). A HIGH SURF ADVISORY  
WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD  
COASTS. THE TREASURE COAST WILL ALSO NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY  
EARLY WED AS ERIN LIFTS NORTH OF THE PROTECTIVE BAHAMA BANK.  
OVERALL, THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES  
AND ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS,  
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND ERIN WILL PRODUCE  
BREEZY NE WINDS TODAY, 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 MPH THAT WILL BACK  
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN  
CHANCES ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE BUT MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40  
TO 50 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES  
REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 102 TO 106.  
 
THURSDAY-MONDAY...A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO  
BUILD JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS SET-UP WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING  
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE  
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA  
BREEZE SO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF  
THE PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS, KEPT POPS 50-70% IN THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.  
 
AT THE BEACHES, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS  
HURRICANE ERIN ACCELERATES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF  
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES ALL WEEK, AND LIKELY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS TODAY AND WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
AS HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA. THE CURRENT NHC  
FORECAST HAS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF ERIN ABOUT 415  
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY WED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS  
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN  
BACK OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS  
15-20 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
TO BUILD WITH NEARSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 11 FEET AND OFFSHORE  
SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE ERIN IS FORECAST  
TO TURN NE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND  
WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE  
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR  
MOST OF THE WATERS THRU THU EVE, WHICH WILL EXPAND TO THE  
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SCA EXTENSIONS  
IN TIME PAST THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
 
IN PARTICULAR, VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING  
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY ERIN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM MLB SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT MLB AND THE TREASURE COAST  
TERMINALS. VCSH IS THEN INTRODUCED AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS BY  
15Z/16Z. NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 18-23 KTS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS  
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING  
STORMS TOWARD THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AROUND 18Z. ACTIVITY IS THEN  
FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OF THE GREATER ORLANDO TERMINALS AROUND  
21Z/22Z. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR TEMPOS AND HAVE  
MAINTAINED VCSH/VCTS WORDING. ISOLATED ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY  
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
WITH CONTINUED VCSH KEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NORTHEAST  
WINDS SLACKEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING NORTH TO  
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 89 77 90 75 / 40 20 40 10  
MCO 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 50 10  
MLB 91 78 92 76 / 50 20 50 20  
VRB 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 20  
LEE 92 76 93 78 / 40 10 30 10  
SFB 91 77 93 77 / 50 20 50 10  
ORL 93 78 93 78 / 50 10 50 10  
FPR 91 74 93 73 / 50 20 50 20  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
FLZ141-347-447-647-747.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-570-  
572-575.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ555.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KELLY  
AVIATION...LAW  
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