894
FXUS62 KMLB 191746
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
146 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VOLUSIA & BREVARD COASTS, EFFECTIVE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR 5-8 FT BREAKERS & MINOR BEACH/DUNE EROSION
EXPECTED. TREASURE COAST TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LARGE SWELL.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TODAY-WED...LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS HURRICANE ERIN NORTHWARD,
REMAINING EAST OF FL. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE WED, ABOUT 415
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. NONETHELESS, SIGNIFICANT COASTAL AND
BOATING EFFECTS WILL BE FELT HERE. BUILDING SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
ERIN WILL LEAD TO AN ONGOING HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING ROUGH POUNDING SURF WITH
MINOR BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES WHICH ARE OCCURRING NOW BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM AND AGAIN 5 TO 7
PM. (THERE ARE 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES PER 24HR). A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COASTS. THE TREASURE COAST WILL ALSO NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY
EARLY WED AS ERIN LIFTS NORTH OF THE PROTECTIVE BAHAMA BANK.
OVERALL, THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
AND ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
IN ADDITION TO THE DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS,
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND ERIN WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY NE WINDS TODAY, 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 MPH THAT WILL BACK
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE BUT MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES
REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 102 TO 106.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS SET-UP WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE SO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS, KEPT POPS 50-70% IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
AT THE BEACHES, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS
HURRICANE ERIN ACCELERATES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES ALL WEEK, AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY AND WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST HAS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF ERIN ABOUT 415
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY WED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN
BACK OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
15-20 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD WITH NEARSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 11 FEET AND OFFSHORE
SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE ERIN IS FORECAST
TO TURN NE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND
WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THRU THU EVE, WHICH WILL EXPAND TO THE
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SCA EXTENSIONS
IN TIME PAST THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
IN PARTICULAR, VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY ERIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VCTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE PUSHES MOST CONVECTION
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA BY AROUND 23Z. MEANWHILE,
VCSH PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
VCTS BY AROUND 13-14Z, AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FAR PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE SWATH OF DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN
NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE OVERALL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TEMPOS, THOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW.
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN NORTHWEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON, AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18-22KTS TODAY AND 20-25KTS TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
PRESENT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 91 76 94 / 20 50 10 60
MCO 77 94 77 95 / 10 50 10 60
MLB 78 92 76 94 / 20 50 20 60
VRB 76 93 74 95 / 20 50 20 60
LEE 77 93 78 93 / 10 40 10 60
SFB 77 93 77 94 / 10 50 10 60
ORL 77 94 77 95 / 10 50 10 60
FPR 75 94 73 95 / 20 50 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447-
647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-570-
572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ555.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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