938
FXUS62 KMLB 192320
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
720 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA & BREVARD
COASTS, AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOR 5-8 FT BREAKERS & MINOR BEACH/DUNE
EROSION EXPECTED.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LARGE SWELL.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY... HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD,
WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAVING ERIN REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
ERIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY 415 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS ERIN MOVES
NORTHWARD, PRODUCING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST)
BEFORE TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOWER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME DRIER AIR AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES. HAVE MAINTAINED A MEDIUM (40-
50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL AS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY,
WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 102-106 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WITH SOME UPPER 70S FORECAST AROUND THE ORLANDO METRO AREA EACH
NIGHT.
BUILDING SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
AND BOATING EFFECTS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES. ALONG WITH THAT, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS, AND WILL START ALONG THE
COAST OF THE TREASURE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET THAT ARE FORECAST IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH POUNDING SURF WITH MINOR BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES
(AROUND 5 TO 7 AM AND PM). DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE
LOCAL BEACHES AND ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
THURSDAY-MONDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS
HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS SET-UP WILL
RESULT IN PREVAILING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH A RETURN OF
MOISTURE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS, KEPT POPS 50-70% IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
AT THE BEACHES, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS HURRICANE
ERIN ACCELERATES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES ALL WEEK, AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BOATING CONDITIONS
ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE
CENTER OF ERIN ABOUT 415 EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BE 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS THEN BACK OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH NEARSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 11
FEET AND OFFSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
ERIN IS FORECAST TO TURN NE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THRU THU EVE, WHICH WILL EXPAND TO THE
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SCA EXTENSIONS IN
TIME PAST THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
IN PARTICULAR, VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING LARGE,
LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY ERIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS, WITH ONGOING VCSH ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT NNE FLOW RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE
OF DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN TO THE EAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOMORROW, WITH VCTS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 14Z AND AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 17/18Z.
THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
SO HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ADDING IN ANY TEMPOS. GUSTY WINDS
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 23Z AND AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, WITH LIGHTER
NNE WINDS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 91 76 94 / 20 50 10 60
MCO 77 94 77 95 / 10 50 10 60
MLB 78 92 76 94 / 20 50 20 60
VRB 76 93 74 95 / 20 50 20 60
LEE 77 93 78 93 / 10 40 10 60
SFB 77 93 77 94 / 10 50 10 60
ORL 77 94 77 95 / 10 50 10 60
FPR 75 94 73 95 / 20 50 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447-
647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-570-
572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ555.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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