641  
FXUS62 KMLB 200553  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
153 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
- HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA & BREVARD  
COASTS, AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE COAST ON  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOR 5-8 FT BREAKERS & MINOR BEACH/DUNE  
EROSION EXPECTED.  
 
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND  
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC  
WITH A LARGE SWELL.  
 
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS  
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
TODAY-WEDNESDAY... HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD,  
WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAVING ERIN REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE  
ERIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS  
APPROXIMATELY 415 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS ERIN MOVES  
NORTHWARD, PRODUCING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT  
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST)  
BEFORE TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOWER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME DRIER AIR AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES. HAVE MAINTAINED A MEDIUM (40-  
50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS WELL AS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY,  
WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 102-106 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,  
WITH SOME UPPER 70S FORECAST AROUND THE ORLANDO METRO AREA EACH  
NIGHT.  
 
BUILDING SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL  
AND BOATING EFFECTS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL CENTRAL  
FLORIDA BEACHES. ALONG WITH THAT, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS, AND WILL START ALONG THE  
COAST OF THE TREASURE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DUE TO LARGE  
BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET THAT ARE FORECAST IN THE NEARSHORE  
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH POUNDING SURF WITH MINOR BEACH AND  
DUNE EROSION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES  
(AROUND 5 TO 7 AM AND PM). DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE  
LOCAL BEACHES AND ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.  
 
THURSDAY-MONDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL  
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS  
HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. THIS SET-UP WILL  
RESULT IN PREVAILING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH A RETURN OF  
MOISTURE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST  
COAST SEA BREEZE SO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN  
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS, KEPT POPS 50-70% IN THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.  
 
AT THE BEACHES, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS HURRICANE  
ERIN ACCELERATES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES ALL WEEK, AND LIKELY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
TODAY-SATURDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BOATING CONDITIONS  
ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND WILL  
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN  
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE  
CENTER OF ERIN ABOUT 415 EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BE 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25  
KNOTS. WINDS THEN BACK OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE  
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH NEARSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 11  
FEET AND OFFSHORE SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE  
ERIN IS FORECAST TO TURN NE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE  
THIS WEEK AND WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO  
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THRU THU EVE, WHICH WILL EXPAND TO THE  
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SCA EXTENSIONS IN  
TIME PAST THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY  
BE NEEDED.  
 
IN PARTICULAR, VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING LARGE,  
LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY ERIN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE OR BRUSH  
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, PRODUCING  
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP WITH EARLIEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST NEAR KDAB  
BY LATE MORNING MORNING AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND INLAND WITH TIME  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS STARTING AROUND 15Z AT KDAB, 16Z  
AT KTIX, 17Z AT KMLB/KVRB, AND 18Z ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS AND  
KFPR/KSUA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST,  
PRODUCING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY  
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING, WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  
 
N/NW WINDS 5-7 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS INLAND AND UP TO  
10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 90 76 94 76 / 50 10 60 20  
MCO 94 77 95 76 / 40 10 60 20  
MLB 92 77 94 76 / 50 10 60 30  
VRB 93 74 95 74 / 50 20 60 30  
LEE 93 77 93 77 / 40 10 60 20  
SFB 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20  
ORL 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20  
FPR 94 73 95 73 / 50 20 60 30  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447-  
647-747.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ154-159-164.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-  
570-572-575.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...WATSON  
AVIATION...WEITLICH  
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