295
FNUS72 KMLB 200808
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SFWMD - LRUS - 10,11...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
408 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON AUGUST 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION.
THERE ARE NO MIN RH CONCERNS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 52 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 55 DECREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0 0 1 2 10 11 26 18 13 10 8 22
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 40 30
TEMP............76 75 77 81 85 87 89 91 92 92 92 91
RH..............96 99 94 82 72 68 63 58 56 55 55 56
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.8 4.0 5.0 4.1 4.5 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 10 25 37 49 53 55 59 54 50 42
LVORI...........8 9 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....24 DECREASING TO 7.
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........22 26 29 8 6 2
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............89 82 80 79 77 77
RH..............60 76 82 85 90 90
20 FT WIND......N 7 N 5 W 2 W 2 SW 2 SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.13 8 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (FT)....2400 600 500 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 8 N 6 W 5 W 5 SW 5 W 6
DISPERSION IDX..24 3 2 2 2 3
LVORI...........2 4 5 5 7 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4300 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 54 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 70 INCREASING TO 78 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 61.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........1 4 16 30
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC LIKELY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 20 20 60
TEMP............75 82 90 92
RH..............98 81 60 55
20 FT WIND......W 3G7 W 6G9 W 7G13 W 7G14
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1500 4500 5700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 9 W 13 W 13
DISPERSION IDX..3 18 66 74
LVORI...........8 3 1 1
FORECASTER...LAW
REQUESTED BY...DAVID SCHUTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520168.1/MLB
.DELDT 08/20/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DSCHUTT@SFWMD.GOV
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