881
FXUS62 KMLB 201058
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
658 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 5-10 FT
& MINOR BEACH/DUNE EROSION IS EXPECTED.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LARGE SWELL.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
TODAY... HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS INCREASING UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. DRY AIR
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ERIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ROUNDS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ABOVE 700MB SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP ACTIVITY SHALLOW WITH LIMITED
LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS DISTANT, NUMEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARDS CONTINUE AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS UP TO 16 SECONDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT NOAA BUOY 41009. A
HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-10 FT REMAIN FORECAST TODAY. ENTERING THE
DANGEROUS SURF IS DISCOURAGED! MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... ERIN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASING IN SPEED AS
IT RECURVES TO SEA. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
LATE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LOCALLY. MOISTURE RECOVERS,
INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY (60%)
AND FRIDAY (70%). WHILE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS POOR, SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA TOUCHING THE MID 90S ON THURSDAY. HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO BETTER REGULATE TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, LINGERING AROUND 11-12
SECONDS INTO LATE WEEK. THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ROUGH SURF
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6-8 FT EARLY THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AT LOCAL BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS!
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO NORTH FLORIDA,
RESULTING IN IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE LOCALLY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
FAVORING HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70%) ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR THEN
INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY CUTTING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WIDELY RANGING THE
LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
LOW TO MID 90S INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT NEARSHORE AND 10-
15 FT OFFSHORE WILL PEAK LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SEAS
ARE FORECAST 5-6 FT NEARSHORE WITH LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7 FT
ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONES. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS
TODAY, GUSTING 25-30 KTS. LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS THEN DEVELOP
INTO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. COVERAGE INCREASES INTO LATE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PRODUCED BY ERIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE OR BRUSH SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY NEAR KDAB/KTIX
AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. INTO
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP (RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40-50%). HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR KDAB BY LATE
MORNING AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND INLAND WITH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT VCTS STARTING AROUND 15Z AT KDAB, 16Z AT
KTIX, 17Z AT KMLB/KVRB, AND 18Z ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS AND
KFPR/KSUA, WITH 3 HOUR WINDOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR TSRA IMPACTS
AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
N/NW WINDS 5-7 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS INLAND AND UP TO
10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 94 76 / 50 10 60 20
MCO 94 77 95 76 / 40 10 60 20
MLB 92 77 94 76 / 50 10 60 30
VRB 93 74 95 74 / 50 20 60 30
LEE 93 77 93 77 / 40 10 60 20
SFB 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20
ORL 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20
FPR 94 73 95 73 / 50 20 60 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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