667
FXUS62 KMLB 201734
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
134 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 5-10 FT
& MINOR BEACH/DUNE EROSION IS EXPECTED.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LARGE SWELL.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
TODAY... HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS INCREASING UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. DRY AIR
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ERIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ROUNDS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ABOVE 700MB SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP ACTIVITY SHALLOW WITH LIMITED
LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS DISTANT, NUMEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARDS CONTINUE AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS UP TO 16 SECONDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT NOAA BUOY 41009. A
HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-10 FT REMAIN FORECAST TODAY. ENTERING THE
DANGEROUS SURF IS DISCOURAGED! MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... ERIN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASING IN SPEED AS
IT RECURVES TO SEA. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
LATE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LOCALLY. MOISTURE RECOVERS,
INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY (60%)
AND FRIDAY (70%). WHILE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS POOR, SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA TOUCHING THE MID 90S ON THURSDAY. HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO BETTER REGULATE TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, LINGERING AROUND 11-12
SECONDS INTO LATE WEEK. THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ROUGH SURF
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6-8 FT EARLY THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AT LOCAL BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS!
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO NORTH FLORIDA,
RESULTING IN IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE LOCALLY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
FAVORING HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70%) ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR THEN
INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY CUTTING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WIDELY RANGING THE
LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
LOW TO MID 90S INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT NEARSHORE AND 10-
15 FT OFFSHORE WILL PEAK LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SEAS
ARE FORECAST 5-6 FT NEARSHORE WITH LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7 FT
ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONES. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS
TODAY, GUSTING 25-30 KTS. LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS THEN DEVELOP
INTO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. COVERAGE INCREASES INTO LATE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PRODUCED BY ERIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST,
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VCTS ALONG THE COAST, WHICH HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
SPORADIC SO FAR AND SOMEWHAT OF A SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE ON SATELLITE IN RADAR. KEEPING THAT
IN MIND, TEMPOS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM COASTAL SITES. THOUGH THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, SHOULD COVERAGE INCREASE. QUICK TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHORT LIVED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
MENTION OF TS FROM THE INTERIOR TERMINALS, AS THE XMR SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING HAVE FOUND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID- LEVELS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE ERIN,
WILL HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER, ROGUE TS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT THE COAST, WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BACK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY, AS ERIN MOVES NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 94 76 92 / 10 60 30 70
MCO 77 96 77 95 / 10 60 20 70
MLB 77 94 77 93 / 10 60 30 70
VRB 74 95 75 93 / 20 60 30 70
LEE 77 93 77 92 / 10 60 20 70
SFB 77 95 77 93 / 10 60 20 70
ORL 77 96 78 94 / 10 60 20 70
FPR 74 95 73 94 / 20 60 30 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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