191
FXUS62 KMLB 201845
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF
5-10 FT & MINOR BEACH/DUNE EROSION IS EXPECTED.
- THE HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK AND
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ERIN CHURNS UP THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LARGE SWELL. DO NOT ENTER THE OCEAN!
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEHIND ERIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT... HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LOCALLY, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MOVING
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH ALONG THE COAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL THEN
FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE SHALLOW TOPPED
AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL. HOWEVER, IF LIGHTNING
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE IS
HINTING THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PUSH BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 102-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
NUMEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN. CURRENT BUOY 41009 OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS PERSISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH
SURF WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES, WITH BREAKING WAVES OF
5-10 FT. MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN!
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HURRICANE ERIN
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
INCREASING IN SPEED AS IT RECURVES TO SEA. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
LOCALLY. MOISTURE RECOVERS, INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY (60%) AND FRIDAY (70%). WHILE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS POOR, SURFACE INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA TOUCHING THE MID 90S ON THURSDAY. HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO BETTER REGULATE
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, LINGERING AROUND 11-12
SECONDS INTO LATE WEEK. THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ROUGH SURF
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6-8 FT EARLY THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AT LOCAL BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS!
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO
NORTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE
LOCALLY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW FAVORING HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70%) ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR THEN
INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY CUTTING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WIDELY RANGING THE LOW
90S THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO
MID 90S INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS BUILDING 7-12 FT NEARSHORE AND 10-15 FT OFFSHORE WILL PEAK LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-7 FT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TODAY, GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS THEN DEVELOP INTO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. COVERAGE INCREASES INTO LATE WEEK
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT INLETS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE INCOMING LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PRODUCED BY HURRICANE ERIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST,
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VCTS ALONG THE COAST, WHICH HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
SPORADIC SO FAR AND SOMEWHAT OF A SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE ON SATELLITE IN RADAR. KEEPING THAT
IN MIND, TEMPOS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM COASTAL SITES. THOUGH THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, SHOULD COVERAGE INCREASE. QUICK TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHORT LIVED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE
MENTION OF TS FROM THE INTERIOR TERMINALS, AS THE XMR SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING HAVE FOUND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID- LEVELS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE ERIN,
WILL HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER, ROGUE TS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT THE COAST, WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BACK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY, AS ERIN MOVES NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 94 76 92 / 10 60 30 70
MCO 77 96 77 95 / 10 60 20 70
MLB 77 94 77 93 / 10 60 30 70
VRB 74 95 75 93 / 20 60 30 70
LEE 77 93 77 92 / 10 60 20 70
SFB 77 95 77 93 / 10 60 20 70
ORL 77 96 78 94 / 10 60 20 70
FPR 74 95 73 94 / 20 60 30 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...LEAHY
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