871
FXUS62 KMLB 040007
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
807 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH
A MODERATE RISK SOUTHWARD
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE, FOCUSED SOUTH OF ORLANDO
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A NOTICEABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR HAS INTRUDED ABOVE
500MB, BASED ON THE 15Z XMR SOUNDING, AND HIGHER PW (2+") ARE NOW
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE TO PALM BAY LINE.
WITH STEADY ONSHORE FLOW, VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A DIFFUSE SEA
BREEZE MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH A MORE FORMIDABLE
BOUNDARY APPEARING FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD STUART AND HOBE SOUND OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND AT TIMES, THESE SHOWERS ARE ACCELERATING THE PUSH OF
THE SEA BREEZE WESTWARD. HIGHER COVERAGE (60-70%) OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS IS FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY, AS
OUTFLOW/COASTAL BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN, A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S (VOLUSIA COAST)
TO LOW 90S INLAND AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 70S
OVERNIGHT. THESE HIGHS/LOWS ARE IN KEEPING WITH NORMAL VALUES FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL STREWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. MAINTAIN NE/ENE WINDS WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL
RESIDES SOUTHWARD WITH POPS 35-45PCT ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 AND 60-80PCT
FARTHER SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS MAY STILL BE TOO GENEROUS EVEN WITH
CUTTING BACK ON NBM VALUES. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH WARMER
MID-LEVEL (H500) TEMPERATURES (-5C TO -6C). THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
WEAK SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRLY FLOW THAT
WILL AID DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE U80S (COAST) TO L90S
(INLAND) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSISTENT IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...A RATHER DULL PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO INCREASE A BIT THE H500 TEMP REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT (-5C AND -6C). WE START THE PERIOD WHERE WE LEFT OFF,
LOWER PWATS (1.50") NORTHWARD AND HIGHER VALUES SOUTHWARD (2.15").
DEEPER MOISTURE AREAWIDE FINALLY GETS PULLED BACK NORTHWARD LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND MORESO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PGRAD REMAINS WEAK AND
THUS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATES, BUT WE MAY SEE PERIODS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW REIGNS (IF ONLY
BRIEFLY). WE DO CARRY SCT-NMRS POPS THRU THE PERIOD (AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON NBM NUMBERS), BUT SOME OF THESE NUMBERS MAY HAVE TO BE
TEMPERED BACK A BIT MORE AS WE MOVE FORWARD DUE TO THE HIGH NBM
BIAS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U80S TO L90S, BUT COULD SEE A FEW M90S
READINGS N/W OF I-4 THIS WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100
TO 105 DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND. NO CHANGE IN OUR
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT MINS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR BOATING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHTER ENE FLOW THU-FRI TURNS OFFSHORE EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ONLY INCREASING TO 10-12 KT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT THURSDAY
BECOME 2-3 FT FRIDAY AND BEYOND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORM REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL
WATERS (ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM), SOME OF WHICH COULD DRIFT
BACK TOWARD THE COAST EACH MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
MORNING AS TODAY'S TS HAS WOUND DOWN OR PUSHED WEST OF THE ECFL
TERMINALS. LIGHT NRLY OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME VRB AT TIMES. WINDS
SHIFTS ENE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ENHANCED BY A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
ECSB DEVELOPING 16Z-18Z, INCREASING ENE WINDS TO 5-10 KTS, UP TO
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ALL ECFL TAFS HAVE
PRETTY BROAD VCTS TIMEFRAMES. FLOW DOES GENERALLY FAVOR A SLIGHTLY
EARLY START TO TS INVOF OF KDAB-KTIX, QUICKLY PUSHING INLAND
TOWARDS KMCO NEARBY TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO
NORMAL TIMING ALONG THE REST OF THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 87 75 88 / 30 40 20 40
MCO 74 90 75 90 / 20 60 20 60
MLB 77 88 75 89 / 40 70 40 70
VRB 74 89 74 90 / 50 80 40 70
LEE 74 90 75 90 / 10 40 10 50
SFB 74 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 50
ORL 75 90 75 90 / 20 60 20 60
FPR 73 89 73 90 / 50 80 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HALEY
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