000
FXUS62 KMLB 040555
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS TODAY
AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF ORLANDO
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGHER COVERAGE RETURNS NORTHWARD
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS REVEAL A PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER
THE U.S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WITH SHORT
WAVELENGTHS, THIS -EPO SETUP REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE WHILE
HIGH-LATITUDE POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN CANADA.
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, FORCING ANOTHER EARLY-SEASON COLD FRONT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO
CLEAR THE STATE, IT WILL KEEP THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR VERY CLOSE TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES TEND TO FILL THE EAST COAST TROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT A
WEAKNESS IS STILL FAVORED OVER FLORIDA AS RIDGING HOLDS TO THE WEST.
ENSEMBLE MEANS PLACE FLORIDA BACK IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET SEGMENT, AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FORCE PROGRESSIVELY
HIGHER MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA.
THE OVERALL REGIME LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND FAVORS ABOVE-
NORMAL RAINFALL. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO BREAK THIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER (AND PERHAPS BEYOND). IN FACT, THE
MJO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR BROAD ASCENT OVER
FLORIDA, THE GULF, AND THE CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE MONTH.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - FRIDAY...
THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER AS WE END THE
SHORT WORK WEEK. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SET TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT RESIDING NEAR AND NORTH OF
ORLANDO. ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE A DOMINANT ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE (60-80%) OF
RAIN/STORMS RESIDING SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE-MELBOURNE, WHERE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LIES. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED (1 IN 10 CHANCE) 2-3"+ RAINFALL TALLIES, WHICH MAY
PROMPT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF IT FALLS TOO QUICKLY. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD HOLD NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEEKEND...
WITH SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND NEARLY-STALLED FRONT, PERSISTENCE REMAINS KEY TO
OUR FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT (40-
70%) FOR SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE, PLACING OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS NEAR LAKE O AND THE TREASURE COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME ONSHORE
WIND RELIEF AT THE COAST, IT DOES LOOK TO TURN A BIT HOTTER. HIGHS
SHOULD TOUCH THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES 100-105 DEG F.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEAKNESS IN THE JET STREAM OVER FLORIDA WILL ALLOW MORE
DISTURBANCES TO PASS BY, KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.
A FEW MEMBERS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY AROUND TUESDAY
BEFORE SENDING IT INTO THE ATLANTIC. WITH 60-90% OF EPS MEMBERS
PAINTING TOTAL MOISTURE VALUES AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER, THIS NEARLY ASSURES THAT BOUTS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE ON TAP. RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE 65-75% AND LIKELY TO
INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS. IT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA NEARSHORE WATERS,
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 8-13 KT ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, ENHANCED
BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM, SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. VCSH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST FOR THE
ONGOING SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 19Z BEFORE
SPREADING INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTH
OF MCO). TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE TREASURE COAST, THOUGH
CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST,
CLEARING BY SUNSET.
LIGHT NNE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 76 88 75 / 40 20 40 20
MCO 90 75 91 75 / 60 20 50 10
MLB 87 76 88 76 / 60 30 60 30
VRB 88 74 89 74 / 80 40 70 40
LEE 90 74 91 75 / 40 10 30 10
SFB 89 75 91 75 / 50 10 50 10
ORL 90 76 91 75 / 50 20 50 10
FPR 89 73 89 73 / 80 40 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...LEAHY
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