614
FXUS62 KMLB 041842
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF ORLANDO THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. GREATER COVERAGE RETURNS AREAWIDE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A CIRRUS SHIELD IS OVERSPREADING SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT IS
GOING TO STRUGGLE MORE NOW WITH THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD. GOES-DERIVED PW
DEPICTS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WELL ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, RANGING
FROM 1.3" PW NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO 1.6" NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. HIGHER
VALUES NEAR 2"+ RESIDE FROM NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE AND
SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. KTBW RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
FORMING FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWARD, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS. HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM TAMPA BAY TO FORT LAUDERDALE (50-60%), AND
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE AND
MARTIN COUNTY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE SUNSET. AFTER THE SUN
GOES DOWN, LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE 70S.
FRIDAY...MODEST 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR WEATHER
STORY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BY ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S), A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CARRY A SEA
BREEZE INLAND PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM FORMING ALONG IT. ONCE AGAIN, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-
70%) WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO, FAVORING
THE TREASURE COAST WESTWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE KISSIMMEE
RIVER. WITH A LITTLE MORE SURFACE HEATING, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES COULD
INCREASE A BIT, THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSES ARE MODEST AT BEST (UNDER
6C/KM). THIS FORECASTS KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES UNDER 55%, OR ABOUT ONE
CATEGORY LOWER THAN NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY IN THE EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSISTENT
LOWS STAY IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS)...WITH SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY AND NEARLY-STALLED FRONT,
PERSISTENCE REMAINS KEY TO OUR FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH GRADIENT (40-70%) FOR SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE,
PLACING OUR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR LAKE O AND THE TREASURE
COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME ONSHORE WIND RELIEF AT THE COAST, IT DOES
LOOK TO TURN A BIT HOTTER. HIGHS SHOULD TOUCH THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES 100-105 DEG F.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE JET STREAM OVER FLORIDA WILL ALLOW MORE
DISTURBANCES TO PASS BY, KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.
A FEW MEMBERS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY AROUND TUESDAY
BEFORE SENDING IT INTO THE ATLANTIC. WITH 60-90% OF EPS MEMBERS
PAINTING TOTAL MOISTURE VALUES AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER, THIS NEARLY ASSURES THAT BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARE ON TAP. RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE 65-75% AND LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SEAS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY-STATE TODAY, AROUND 2-3 FT AT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC BUOYS. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE WITH
10-15 KT SPEEDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLED BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE WATERS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO THIS
WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAINLY 2-4
FT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 2-3 FT THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS NEXT WEEK
ALONG AND BEHIND THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LOCALES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
HAVE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, NAMELY THOSE INLAND FROM KVRB-KFPR-KSUA. MAINTAINED
VCTS AT THESE SITES AND ADDED A SHORT LATE-AFTERNOON TEMPO AT
KSUA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH, WHERE MOISTURE LESSENS AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, KEPT CONVECTION (TS)
OUT OF THE TAFS, THOUGH SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
ONSHORE FLOW, ALBEIT WEAKER, IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH OF KMLB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 88 76 89 / 10 20 20 40
MCO 75 91 76 92 / 20 40 20 60
MLB 77 88 76 89 / 20 50 30 60
VRB 75 89 74 91 / 30 60 40 70
LEE 74 91 76 91 / 10 30 10 50
SFB 75 90 76 91 / 10 30 10 50
ORL 76 90 76 91 / 20 40 20 60
FPR 74 89 73 91 / 30 60 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...ULRICH
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