516
FXUS62 KMLB 050615
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF ORLANDO TODAY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WEAKENS A BIT, RESULTING IN MODEST HEIGHT RISES, AND ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN TO INCH A LITTLE CLOSER TO
FLORIDA, WHILE THE RESIDENT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA MOST OF THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA JUST A BIT, RESULTING IN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY
LATE MORNING. THIS WILL CARRY A DIFFUSE EAST COAST QUICKLY
INLAND, WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND
ALSO WHIP UP SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. BETWEEN
THE INCREASED FLOW AND SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE A BIT FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING STORMS DUE TO LACKLUSTER
INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, DECREASING NORTHWARD WITH THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT. TIMING WILL BE GENERALLY EARLIER THAN USUAL,
POSSIBLY IN THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, BUT MOSTLY
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY WESTWARD AND LARGELY DEPARTING THE AREA BY THE EARLY
EVENING. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME CONTINUED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AFTERWARDS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES VERY NEARLY NORMAL IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST AND
U80-L90S INLAND, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
U90S-L100S. A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AS
THE BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.
THE WEEKEND...A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
RESIDENT STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LIFTS NORTH A BIT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY. THEN, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH WE DO KEEP A
SLIGHT GRADIENT OF HIGHER CHANCES (UP TO 80%) TO THE SOUTH AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES (UP TO 60%) ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT PROPERLY ARRIVES. INSTABILITY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT A
FEW LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES CREEP UP A DEGREE OR SO SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST AND U80-L90S
INLAND, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
U90S-L100S, APPROACHING THE M100S IN A FEW SPOTS SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS
WEAK BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US,
REACHING TENTATIVELY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH LITTLE FORCING,
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE SAG INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AS EVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS COME IN AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, AND WHILE SOME EARLY STARTS AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES, AS USUAL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND DEPENDING WHERE, WHEN,
AND IF THEY FORM, BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY (A DEGREE OR TWO)
BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOATING, BUT HIGH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST DROP IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND, SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY INCREASE ENE WINDS TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, THEN EASE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SQUIRRELLY AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AT GENERALLY 5-10 KTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES VERY LOOSE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COMPLICATE THE WIND FIELD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US DIPS CLOSER MONDAY, BRINGING BACK
ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KTS FOR A SPELL, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND
FORECAST INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS 2-3 FT
COULD PICK UP TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE IF THESE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VCSH CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH COVERAGE
REMAINS LIGHT OVERALL. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP
EARLY ALONG THE COAST (16Z) AND MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. RECENT CAMS HAVE EVEN
SUGGESTED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THUS, IT MAY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VCSH FOR
THE COAST. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FROM TIX SOUTHWARD,
CLOSEST TO A STALLED BOUNDARY, WITH DAB POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTERIOR SITES AROUND
18Z, THEN CLEAR TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BY 23Z. TS
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVERALL, WITH ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT INCLUDED A TS MENTION IN
ANY TAF, THOUGH A FEW STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND NEAR OBE. NE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
(FROM MCO/MLB NORTHWARD), INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. TO THE SOUTH, WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 20
MCO 91 75 91 75 / 50 30 60 30
MLB 88 76 89 75 / 60 40 60 40
VRB 89 75 90 74 / 70 40 70 40
LEE 91 75 91 75 / 30 20 50 20
SFB 90 75 91 75 / 40 30 60 20
ORL 90 76 91 75 / 40 30 60 30
FPR 89 74 90 74 / 70 40 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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