116
FXUS62 KMLB 060522
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
122 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
- THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF A FEW DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.
- THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 100 TO 105 THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
(FOR TONIGHT & SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
WE'RE STILL TRACKING A PESKY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF. RICH, TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE PENINSULA AS WELL: PW VALUES JUMP
FROM AROUND 2.0" AT ORLANDO TO 2.5" NEAR MIAMI. IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISE AT H5 AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
LOUISIANA, THE FRONT IS SET TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, DRAGGING EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE DISTRICT.
HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT A COUPLE WAVES OF STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR THAT, CONCEPTUALLY, MAKE SENSE...
FIRST OFF, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
MAY FORCE REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS. HANDLED THIS WITH 30-50%
RAIN CHANCE FOR THESE COASTAL AREAS; IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY LIFTS AWAY FROM ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
ALSO HAD A CHANCE TO PEEK AHEAD AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON'S STORM
CHANCES. AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT SOME
SORT OF A SEA-BREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISION IS FAVORED OVER THE
INTERIOR. AMPLE INSTABILITY (DUE TO SURFACE HEATING) AND
LUMBERING STORM MOTIONS RAISE THE CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
PARTICULARLY IF IT FALLS OVER THE ORLANDO URBAN CORRIDOR. REFS
90TH PERCENTILE TO MAX-MEMBER RAINFALL TALLIES ARE IN THE 3-6"
RANGE, ARCING FROM NEAR ORLANDO TO FORT PIERCE. CHANCES ARE YOUR
BACKYARD WILL NOT PICK UP THIS MUCH RAIN, BUT IT DOES INDICATE THE
5-10% CHANCE OF AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
THIS REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES TO 70-80% FOR ORANGE,
SOUTHERN LAKE, OKEECHOBEE, AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH AT THE COAST, AND RAP MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
VERY SUBTLE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC. GOES-DERIVED PW INDICATES A SOUTH-TO-NORTH PUSH OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT, AND AS A RESULT, KMLB RADAR IS A BIT MORE
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO ORLANDO AND PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA COUNTY,
SURROUNDED BY MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THERE
ARE A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN MODE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING
(LACKING INSTABILITY AND HIGHER LAPSE RATES).
CAM GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WEST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING, BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, RAIN
CHANCES COULD LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY, NBMEXP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HIGHER RAIN PROBS (UP TO 60-
70%) NEAR THE CAPE TO SEBASTIAN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING BANDS OF
RAINFALL SET UP OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING
CAN OCCUR AS A RESULT OF REPEATED MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE MID 70S.
THIS WEEKEND (PREVIOUS)...A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
RESIDENT STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER MOISTURE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LIFTS NORTH A BIT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY.
THEN, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PUSHES TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH WE DO KEEP A SLIGHT GRADIENT OF
HIGHER CHANCES (UP TO 80%) TO THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES
(UP TO 60%) ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT PROPERLY ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE
OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES CREEP UP A DEGREE OR SO SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST AND U80-L90S
INLAND, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE U90S-L100S,
APPROACHING THE M100S IN A FEW SPOTS SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY STAGNANT
THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS WEAK BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US, WEAKLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. H5 ANOMALIES
FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH CONTINUED
EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH LITTLE FORCING, A WEAKENED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE
SAG INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, BECOMING STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS EVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS COME
IN AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WHILE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES, AS USUAL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD
SHIFT THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND, DEPENDING
WHERE, WHEN, AND IF THEY FORM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY (A DEGREE OR TWO) BELOW NORMAL IN THE U80S/L90S,
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS IN THE M70S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS KEEP US LOCKED IN TO A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY GAIN LATITUDE
AND HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, WHICH WOULD
MAINLY WORK TO REINFORCE MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER,
AIDED BY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS 10-14 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY,
PREDOMINANTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAY AND TURNING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES. A SECOND (WEAKENING) COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EFFECTIVELY STALL OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC. WINDS INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT (AROUND 15 KT), MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE, THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS BUILD FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, UP TO 5 FT OR SO OFFSHORE, ACROSS THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THIS IS PROMOTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL MONITOR
IF TEMPOS NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR NEAR KFPR, KVRB, KMLB, AND KTIX.
DAYTIME CONVECTION GETS GOING AROUND 16-18Z SURROUNDING SEA
BREEZE/SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME AFTERNOON TEMPOS ALREADY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WITH "VICINITY" WORDING ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL ENTERTAIN COASTAL TEMPOS AS APPROPRIATE. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL SHIFT E/SE WITH SEA BREEZE
FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR GENERALLY PREVAILS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, WITH TEMPO MVFR INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 88 74 / 30 40 60 40
MCO 91 74 91 74 / 70 50 70 30
MLB 89 75 89 74 / 60 50 70 50
VRB 90 74 89 73 / 60 50 80 60
LEE 91 75 90 74 / 60 40 60 20
SFB 90 75 90 74 / 60 40 70 30
ORL 91 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 30
FPR 90 73 89 72 / 60 50 80 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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