553
FXUS62 KMLB 071046
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
646 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 98 TO 104 TODAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT.... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN US COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS FLORIDA.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL THEN SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, LOSING ITS BAROCLINIC
DEFINITION AS IT REACHES FLORIDA AND LIKELY BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND TRY TO PUSH INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING THE WINDS ONSHORE, WITH THE SEA BREEZE
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO PUSH INLAND.
UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY,
WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.2" ACROSS ECFL. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ECFL, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA IN
GENERAL. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS
THE SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL THEN FOCUS AND ENHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
(WEST OF I-95) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. MAIN STORM HAZARDS
TODAY WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS
OF 40-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3", WHICH MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH THE AXIS
REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD WHILE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ECFL ON MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY, UNUSUALLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH PW VALUES OF
1.9-2.2" ARE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHICH, COUPLED WITH THE
NEARBY FRONT AND HIGHER MOISTURE, WILL HELP KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNSETTLED THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS (70-80 PERCENT)
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST (50-
70 PERCENT) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-45 MPH,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US COAST WILL
AMPLIFY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEEK AND WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY, DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS (40-70 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FROM NEW SMYRNA
BEACH TO ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH, WITH 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY-THURSDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MID WEEK, OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD FORM ALONG
THE STALLED STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK, WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TODAY.
SEAS 2-3FT TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BUILD TO 2-4FT AND U P TO 5 FT IN
THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE S/SE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, AND E/NE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY UP TO 12 MPH. IF THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT, WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FRESHEN. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
WILL MONITOR FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OFFSHORE, THEN TRANSITIONING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON & EVENING
EXPECTED WITH BOTH "VICINITY" WORDING AND TEMPOS ADDED TO TAFS,
THOUGH THEY MAY STILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR TIMING SURROUNDING
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE/TRENDS. LINGERING ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 74 85 75 / 80 60 80 70
MCO 92 74 89 75 / 80 50 80 50
MLB 89 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60
VRB 90 72 89 73 / 80 60 80 60
LEE 90 74 86 74 / 70 40 80 40
SFB 91 74 87 74 / 80 50 80 50
ORL 91 75 88 75 / 80 50 80 50
FPR 91 72 89 71 / 80 60 80 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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