754
FXUS62 KMLB 080004
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
804 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 98 TO 104 TODAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED OVER THE PENINSULA THIS HOUR. THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING, ALONG WITH GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER,
PAINTS A PICTURE OF A FAIRLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH PWATS
APPROACHING THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(2.1-2.2"). STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
LIGHT WEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND
THEIR ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES, WILL PILE UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THAT MAY COUNTERACT THE OTHERWISE WET/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING OFF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS LIABLE TO IMPACT COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS (I-4 CORRIDOR) WHERE SURFACE HEATING GETS
DISRUPTED. STILL, INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION, SO RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70% HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
LIGHT OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH STORMS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK
AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US COAST. BROAD, ALBEIT WEAK, FORCING
SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER CLOSER TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE MORE
READILY ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE. ALL OF THIS
PORTENDS CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH RAIN CHANCES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY (60 - 80%) THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A LOW EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SAME TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAIN IN STORMS. SHOULD
LOW PRESSURE MANAGE TO FORM NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT, WILL WATCH FOR
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ANY ATTENDANT ENHANCEMENT
TO COASTAL RAIN CHANCES.
LATE IN THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE LESSENS A BIT AS MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF AND SOME OF ITS MEMBERS BRING
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA (ALBEIT TEMPORARILY), THE
GFS/GEFS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, CONTINUED TREND OF LESSENING POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-4. REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE
SHOWS BRISK ONSHORE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY-MONDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER THAN USUAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS) GIVEN VARIABLE WINDS
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS, ENHANCED LOCALLY BY THE AFTERNOON EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD) AND
INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT - POTENTIALLY FRESHENING WINDS FOR A PERIOD. SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHEAST
SWELL, UP TO 5 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SILL LINGER NEAR TO NORTH OF KMCO
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z, MAINLY FOR KSFB/KLEE/KDAB.
WILL MONITOR IF ANY ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS IN VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS
ARE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS AND LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW. HAVE VCSH STARTING AROUND 15-16Z, WITH VCTS AT COASTAL
SITES FROM 18Z AND INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 20Z FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN BECOME E/NE AROUND
6-10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 85 74 85 / 50 70 60 80
MCO 74 88 73 89 / 50 80 50 80
MLB 74 87 74 87 / 60 70 60 80
VRB 73 89 73 89 / 60 70 60 80
LEE 74 86 73 86 / 50 80 50 80
SFB 75 86 73 86 / 50 80 60 80
ORL 74 87 73 88 / 50 80 50 80
FPR 72 89 72 89 / 60 70 60 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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