403
FXUS62 KMLB 080523
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
123 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED OVER THE PENINSULA THIS HOUR. THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING, ALONG WITH GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER,
PAINTS A PICTURE OF A FAIRLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE, WITH PWATS
APPROACHING THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(2.1-2.2"). STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
LIGHT WEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND
THEIR ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES, WILL PILE UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THAT MAY COUNTERACT THE OTHERWISE WET/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOVING OFF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS LIABLE TO IMPACT COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS (I-4 CORRIDOR) WHERE SURFACE HEATING GETS
DISRUPTED. STILL, INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION, SO RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70% HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
LIGHT OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH STORMS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK
AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US COAST. BROAD, ALBEIT WEAK, FORCING
SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER CLOSER TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE MORE
READILY ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE. ALL OF THIS
PORTENDS CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH RAIN CHANCES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY (60 - 80%) THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A LOW EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK PERSISTS ACROSS THE SAME TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAIN IN STORMS. SHOULD
LOW PRESSURE MANAGE TO FORM NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT, WILL WATCH FOR
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ANY ATTENDANT ENHANCEMENT
TO COASTAL RAIN CHANCES.
LATE IN THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE LESSENS A BIT AS MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF AND SOME OF ITS MEMBERS BRING
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA (ALBEIT TEMPORARILY), THE
GFS/GEFS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, CONTINUED TREND OF LESSENING POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-4. REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE
SHOWS BRISK ONSHORE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY-MONDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER THAN USUAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS) GIVEN VARIABLE WINDS
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS, ENHANCED LOCALLY BY THE AFTERNOON EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD) AND
INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT - POTENTIALLY FRESHENING WINDS FOR A PERIOD. SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHEAST
SWELL, UP TO 5 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
STUBBORN CONVECTION TONIGHT, WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES FLOATING
AROUND AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. DEBRIS RAIN NORTH OF KMCO
SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH CONVECTION SOUTHWARD THAT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS WELL. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISION BTWN KMLB/KVRB TO SEE IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALSO,
WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL THIS PAST DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
ECFL. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION JUST YET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BECOME E/NE AROUND 6-10
KNOTS MON AFTERNOON. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL ON MON WITH ASSOC MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER
DAY OF NMRS-WSPD SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. TO GO WITH CURRENT
"VICINITY" WORDING, WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE NEXT FCST
PACKAGE. SUSPECT THESE WILL NEED UPDATING AS DAY/CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING PROGRESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 74 85 74 / 80 60 80 60
MCO 89 74 88 73 / 80 60 80 50
MLB 87 74 88 75 / 80 60 80 70
VRB 89 73 89 73 / 80 60 80 60
LEE 86 74 85 73 / 80 60 80 50
SFB 87 74 87 74 / 80 60 80 60
ORL 87 74 88 73 / 80 60 80 50
FPR 89 72 89 72 / 80 60 80 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ULRICH
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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