362
FXUS62 KMLB 081759
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
159 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
AS A LINGERING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED, BUT A
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE, MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THESE COASTAL
REGIONS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TO JUST
NORTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES, MAY CONTINUE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF
ORLANDO.
DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS STALLED FRONT WILL
KEEP PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.1" ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AROUND 80% ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER START TO THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR
INTO LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND CLOSER TO
THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND, AND WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAIN STORM THREATS WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH,
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. 700MB STEERING
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORM MOTION
WILL BE SLOW AND MAY SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, WITH STEERING WINDS BEING SO WEAK, STORMS MAY HAVE VARIABLE
MOTION AS THEY PROPAGATE ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4", WITH ANY PERSISTENT OR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THIS WILL
MOSTLY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR SHOULD THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCUR OVER URBAN
AREAS OR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AROUND 85-90
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STALLED
EITHER ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTY TUESDAY AND THEN
MAY SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA (PW VALUES OF 2-2.3")
AND ALSO CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES, AROUND 80% EACH DAY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING AND ALSO LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" FROM SLOW MOVING
OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-45 MPH AND OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT MAY SEE SOME SPOTS REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...ALOFT, MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
SOUTH TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD,
POTENTIALLY CLEARING SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO GRADUALLY MOVE IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND FOR
NOW HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. POPS RESIDE AROUND 50% ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY, AND 60-70% SOUTH. ON
FRIDAY THEY LOWER TO 30-50% ACROSS TO NW OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
STILL REMAIN UP TO 60-70% FARTHER SOUTH, AND THEN DROP TO 30-50%
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NE
WINDS, PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WINDS
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE (AROUND 5-10 KNOTS), AND SEAS 1-3 FEET
TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES NEAR TO SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, AND A WEAK SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW MAY PUSH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS OFFSHORE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
BECOMING N/NE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INLAND FROM MLB SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS TREND, HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE
TSRA TEMPOS AT MLB AND THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS WITH THE 18Z
PACKAGE, KEEPING ONLY "VICINITY" WORDING. FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, A WET AFTERNOON IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. TSRA TEMPOS ARE
INCLUDED AT TIX/DAB BEGINNING AT 18Z WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. PEAK COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR
A LITTLE LATER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPOS FROM 20Z/24Z
(19Z/23Z AT SFB). AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTHWARD. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 85 74 85 / 70 80 70 80
MCO 75 88 74 89 / 60 80 60 80
MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 70 80
VRB 73 90 73 89 / 60 80 70 80
LEE 74 85 73 86 / 60 80 50 80
SFB 75 87 73 87 / 60 80 60 80
ORL 75 87 73 87 / 60 80 60 80
FPR 73 90 72 90 / 60 80 60 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LAW
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