091
FXUS62 KMLB 090530
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
AS A LINGERING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ONSHORE MOVING AND REDEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM NEAR
MELBOURNE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" FROM ANY PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COAST LEADING TO MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING. HOWEVER, COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT ROADWAY/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IF ANY HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND A STALLED BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE FUTURE TRENDS, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. INSTEAD,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY PROPAGATE THEMSELVES ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, MAKING FOR A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE,
POPS REMAIN HIGH TODAY AROUND 80%, WITH CONVECTION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WHAT STEERING FLOW THERE IS IS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST, SO SOME DRIFT BACK TO THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4", LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE AREA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT OVER LAND AREAS. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE, THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE COAST, WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STALLED NEAR
OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2") WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. POPS UP TO 80% AREA-WIDE,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH, SOME MORNING OR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW IS
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TUESDAY. WHILE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO WEDNESDAY (TO AROUND 15 KTS), SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING. THUS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A THREAT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS, COMPOUNDING IF THE SAME AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OVER A FEW DAYS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL THREATS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS
INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT MAY SEE SOME SPOTS REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...INTO LATE WEEK, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE EASTERN US. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
NUDGE THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WITH PWATS FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 2". POPS WILL RESPOND, WITH LINGERING HIGH CHANCES (~80%)
FROM AROUND MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY FALLING TO 40-50% LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE DRIEST, WITH POPS AROUND 30-40% BY THE
WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A BUILDING
NE SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 6 FEET, MAINLY
OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THIS PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
3-5 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. NE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEEK. UNTIL THEN, HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY, BECOMING NEARER TO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BECOMING UP TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UP TO 15-20 KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE ON SATURDAY. SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT
LOOK TO CONTINUE, WITH UP TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH VCSH ONGOING FROM MLB NORTHWARD. STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SO HAVE MADE A PREVAILING MVFR CIG AT ALL TERMINALS.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST NEAR THE
TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
VCSH/VCTS AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z. STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY PINNING DOWN
EXACT TIMING FOR TEMPOS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS WITH NEXT PACKAGE. LINGERING VCSH POSSIBLE INTO
TOMORROW EVENING, SO KEPT VCSH BEYOND 01Z. PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTY AT TIMES NEAR STORMS.
FORECASTING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 01Z AT THE TERMINALS AS
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 74 84 75 / 80 70 80 50
MCO 87 73 88 74 / 80 60 80 40
MLB 88 75 88 75 / 80 70 80 50
VRB 89 73 90 74 / 80 70 80 50
LEE 84 73 85 73 / 80 60 70 30
SFB 85 74 87 74 / 80 60 80 40
ORL 85 74 87 75 / 80 60 80 40
FPR 89 73 90 72 / 80 70 80 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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