301
FXUS62 KMLB 091805
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
AS A LINGERING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS.
- A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
CURRENT-THURSDAY...STILL HAVE SOME FESTERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE VOLUSIA/SPACE COASTS - CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WARM AND MUGGY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, BUT A BIT STRONGER AND
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STREWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA THRU MID-WEEK WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PWATS 2.00-2.40")
IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL (H500) TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE -5.5C TO -6.5C
RANGE. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRLY FLOW
WILL TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA AIDING CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS (80PCT)
THRU WED, ONLY LOWERING SLIGHTLY (70PCT) ON THU. HIGHEST COVERAGE
AND GREATEST STORM INTENSITY WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE FRONT'S EXACT PLACEMENT, THIS WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THIS FEATURE. STORM STEERING FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND OF A
SW/W COMPONENT, THOUGH ANY STRONGER DIURNAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL PROVIDE FOR ERRATIC MOVEMENT FOR SOME CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND FOR LOCALES THAT SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DAILY ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" COULD LEAD TO
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR STREAM/RIVERS AS THEY APPROACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED BANKFULL
IN SOME AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL THREATS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO AROUND 45 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE M-U80S TO
AROUND 90F. A NERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME
(NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES DUE TO LOCAL
SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.
A BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELL WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS,
STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES, ESP THE
VOLUSIA, BREVARD, AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS. ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO
INCREASE. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK!
FRI-TUE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO SOUTH FL. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH, POPS 40-70PCT (HIGHEST TREASURE COAST/OKEE COUNTY)
ON FRI CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO 30-40PCT AREAWIDE ON SAT/SUN AND
20-40PCT MON/TUE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE M-U80S WITH
LOWS IN THE U60S TO M70S - LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTH/INTERIOR AND
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE,
WHICH COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST, EACH AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STREWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA AND IT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THRU AT
LEAST MID-WEEK (WED-THU). IT WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. NORTH OF THE FRONT
WINDS REMAIN A BIT UNDER-FORECAST AND WILL BE OF A NE/E COMPONENT
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES, LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION.
GENERALLY LIGHTER/VARIABLE WINDS SOUTHWARD. FINDING SEAS A BIT
UNDER-FORECAST AS WELL WITH BUOY 41070 TOUTING SEAS 5-6 FT EARLY
ON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS, BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERALL SEAS 4-6 FT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND THRU THE DAY
(N-->S) ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 3-5
FT, EXCEPT 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE.
WED-SAT...THE BOUNDARY WILL ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU THU,
BUT THEN GET A KICK FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN HIGH
THRU THU, BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WIND
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO NNE/NE INTO MID-
LATE WEEK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BECOMING AREAWIDE AHEAD
OF AND THRU THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESP NORTH
OF THE CAPE LATE WED INTO FRI EVENING AND MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS HERE (15-20 KTS) AT TIMES. SEAS 3-5 FT BUT WILL APPROACH 6
FT WELL OFFSHORE WED-WED NIGHT BEFORE BACKING OFF 3-5 AREAWIDE
AGAIN THU-FRI. SEAS MAY AGAIN APPROACH 5-6 FT LATE FRI THRU SAT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE
VOLUSIA WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(20Z-02Z) WITH SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE. VIS/CIG IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF VRB/FPR, WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 00Z AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03Z.
HOWEVER, LINGERING SHRA MAY REMAIN NEAR DAB THRU THE NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THEN RETURN TO 7-12KT WED., GUSTING 15-20 KT
AT TIMES AFTER 15Z. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
WITH TEMPOS LIKELY NEEDED IN FUTURE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 85 75 85 / 70 70 40 40
MCO 74 88 74 87 / 60 80 40 60
MLB 74 88 75 87 / 60 80 50 70
VRB 73 89 74 88 / 60 80 50 70
LEE 74 86 73 86 / 50 70 30 40
SFB 74 87 74 86 / 60 80 40 50
ORL 74 87 75 86 / 60 80 30 60
FPR 73 89 73 88 / 60 80 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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