825
FXUS62 KMLB 091837
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
237 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
AS A LINGERING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS.
- A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
CURRENTLY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER, ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THANKS TO
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A LITTLE HELP FROM THE WEAK LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF. THE TBW 12Z AND XMR 15Z SOUNDINGS RANG IN WITH 2.13"
AND 2.20" OF PWAT, ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TBW AND APPROACHING
THE DAILY MAX FOR XMR, AND DEPICT NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE DROPS INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CREEPS ITS WAY FROM THE
NORTH GULF TOWARDS FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES TO
SEMINOLE AND BREVARD, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA,
WHERE HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-70% CHANCE OF LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3", AND A 20% CHANCE OF AMOUNTS OVER 5".
WHILE THE FLOODING RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN FORM OF
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING, LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW RESULTING IN SATURATED SOILS AND
STRAINED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE IMPACTFUL
FLOODING, INCLUDING ROAD CLOSURES AND WATER ENTERING STRUCTURES.
IN PARTICULAR ARE PORTIONS OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA SOUTH OF THE
BEACHLINE AND NEAR THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER, AND EASTERN VOLUSIA
INCLUDING MOST OF THE DAYTONA BEACH AREA. OTHER STORM HAZARDS
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS, BUT THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
STRADDLE CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE TRUDGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREEPING EASTWARD CLOSER TO
FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OF 70-80% AREAWIDE REMAIN
ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, WHILE THURSDAY'S CHANCES, THOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY, HAVE COME DOWN A BIT, RANGING FROM AROUND
40-60% ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 TO 50-70% TO THE SOUTH, AS DRIER AIR
NORTH OF THE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO FILTER IN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, AND WE
CONTINUE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BOTH DAYS, EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES START TO
DECREASE DUE TO SENSITIVITY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS' HEAVY RAINFALL.
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER, AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT INTO SOUTH FL. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, POPS 40-70PCT (HIGHEST
TREASURE COAST/OKEE COUNTY) ON FRI CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO 30-40PCT
AREAWIDE ON SAT/SUN AND 20-40PCT MON/TUE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE M-U80S WITH LOWS IN THE U60S TO M70S - LOWEST
ACROSS THE NORTH/INTERIOR AND HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WHICH COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST, EACH AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES.
NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY AND COULD PICK UP
TO AROUND 15 KTS FROM SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT, WHILE TO THE SOUTH
MORE SOUTHERLY/VARIABLE AT 5-10 KTS. FORECAST CALLS FOR SEAS 3-5
FT, UP TO 6 IN THE GULF STREAM OFF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD, BUT THESE
STILL REMAIN A LITTLE OVER-FORECAST AS BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT IN
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FORECAST, DESPITE USING A BLEND OF MULTIPLE
MODELS. THERE'S STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD A BIT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AND WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU THU, BUT THEN GET A KICK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THRU THU, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WIND DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT WILL ALSO TRANSITION TO NNE/NE INTO MID-LATE WEEK ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BECOMING AREAWIDE AHEAD OF AND THRU THE
WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESP NORTH OF THE CAPE LATE
WED INTO FRI EVENING AND MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS HERE
(15-20 KTS) AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY
REACH AROUND 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, AND WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS. SEAS 3-5 FT BUT WILL APPROACH 6 FT WELL
OFFSHORE WED-WED NIGHT BEFORE BACKING OFF 3-5 AREAWIDE AGAIN THU-
FRI. SEAS MAY AGAIN APPROACH 5-6 FT LATE FRI THRU SAT OFFSHORE
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA
WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(20Z-02Z) WITH SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE. VIS/CIG IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF VRB/FPR, WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 00Z AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03Z.
HOWEVER, LINGERING SHRA MAY REMAIN NEAR DAB THRU THE NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THEN RETURN TO 7-12KT WED., GUSTING 15-20 KT
AT TIMES AFTER 15Z. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
WITH TEMPOS LIKELY NEEDED IN FUTURE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 85 75 85 / 70 70 40 40
MCO 74 88 74 87 / 60 80 40 60
MLB 74 88 75 87 / 60 80 50 70
VRB 73 89 74 88 / 60 80 50 70
LEE 74 86 73 86 / 50 70 30 40
SFB 74 87 74 86 / 60 80 40 50
ORL 74 87 75 86 / 60 80 30 60
FPR 73 89 73 88 / 60 80 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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