903
FXUS62 KMLB 110612
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
212 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS, AS A LINGERING FRONT AND
DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS.
- A LOW THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD AS IT TRUDGES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. WHILE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS 2.10"-2.25" AT
OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND GOES IMAGERY)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, LESS
OVERALL INSTABILITY (T500 DOWN TO -5C IN THE XMR 15Z SOUNDING) AND
A LITTLE MORE HOSTILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS (SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
AND WEAK INVERSIONS BETWEEN 850-600MB IN XMR AND TBW SOUNDINGS)
ARE RESULTING IN LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE A DECENT SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND A LINE
OF LIGHTNING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. HRRR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE FLIP- FLOPPY THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT
OVERALL DOESN'T SUPPORT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE (POPS 80% OR HIGHER)
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND AT TIMES DOESN'T SUPPORT EVEN
NUMEROUS (POPS 50-70%), BUT GIVEN RADAR CURRENT TRENDS NUMEROUS
SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AND WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS. BEST CHANCES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE,
WITH LOWER CHANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS MARCH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST COUNTIES IN THE COMING HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING, AND FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AS WELL AS
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
45 MPH. WORTH NOTING EVEN THOUGH CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS ARE LOWER NORTH OF THE FRONT, PARTS OF THIS AREA INCLUDING
THE ORLANDO METRO AND EASTERN VOLUSIA REMAIN VERY SENSITIVE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AND STRAINED DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS' HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WISE,
STARTING TO SEE THE OPPRESSIVE AFTERNOON HEAT FALTER A LITTLE UP
NORTH AS HIGHS "ONLY" REACH THE M-U80S THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS, WHILE DOWN SOUTH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE U80S.
THURSDAY...TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DIG DOWN TOWARDS FLORIDA, SLOWLY PUSHING THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY THE MORNING. DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-4 TO 20-50%, WHILE THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 60-80% TO THE SOUTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
REMAIN A RISK IN THE AREAS WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, AND WHILE
THE CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LOWER UP NORTH
WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE DECREASING, MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES PICK UP A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) AS THE ENVIRONMENT CLOSER TO FRONT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEEPER AND SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION. OTHER STORM THREATS
INCLUDE THE USUAL OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE U80S, BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY
ONLY MAKE IT TO THE M80S.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH, INITIALLY STRUNG ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE, FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE,
FALLING SHORT OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW, BUT STILL
SLOWLY SWEEPING A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA THAT HELPS SCOOT IN
DRIER AIR BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR POPS ON FRI, WE
CARRY 20-40PCT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, WITH 50-70PCT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. WITH A LIKELY TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON FRI, THERE WILL STILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
MARTIN COUNTY. TRYING TO KEEP WITH CONTINUITY FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED EXPECT GENERALLY 30-40PCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FROM SAT-WED, THOUGH 50PCT FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY & THE
TREASURE COAST ON SAT AND AGAIN WED. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONSISTENT IN
THE M-U80S WITH LOWS IN THE L-M70S - THOUGH COULD SEE SOME U60S
ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR.
GENERALLY AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO NEXT WEEK SURROUNDING PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF CERTAIN LOW/UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...THE SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES SHIFTING
FROM THE BREVARD TO THE TREASURE COAST ATLANTIC WATERS. MOSTLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT, THOUGH
ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WHILE TO THE
SOUTH A LINE OF LIGHTNING STORMS ARE PUSHING OFFSHORE IN WESTERLY
FLOW. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS
THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE
SOUTHWARD TO 5-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING STORMS AND HEAVY
SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FT, WHICH SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT CLOSER TO
SHORE.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU THU (SOUTHERN/TREASURE COAST
WATERS), BUT THEN GET A KICK FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FL FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH THRU THU (AND SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI), BUT BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN. WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALSO
TRANSITION TO NNE/NE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESP NORTH OF THE CAPE FRI AFTERNOON THRU THE
WEEKEND, APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS HERE (15-20 KTS) AT TIMES,
AND FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS SATURDAY.
SEAS 3-5 FT BUT WILL APPROACH 6-7 FT, AGAIN, FRI NIGHT INTO SUN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO
SOUTH OF KMLB THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST
TO LINGER AT KMLB AND PERHAPS SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) NEAR TO NORTH OF KMCO.
SOUTH OF KMCO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING UP TO 50-60% NEAR TO SOUTH OF KMLB. FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WITH MVFR IMPACTS TO KVRB-KSUA FROM
19-22Z WHERE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE, HAVE
MOSTLY KEPT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO VCSH/VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE N/NE UP TO 5-8 KNOTS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN BECOMING NE 10-15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 74 85 74 / 30 30 50 40
MCO 89 74 87 72 / 30 20 50 20
MLB 86 76 87 74 / 50 50 60 40
VRB 88 74 87 74 / 60 50 60 40
LEE 89 72 87 71 / 20 10 30 10
SFB 87 73 87 72 / 30 30 50 20
ORL 88 74 87 73 / 30 20 50 20
FPR 88 74 87 72 / 60 50 60 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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