112
FXUS62 KMLB 121101
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
701 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- LINGERING FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR TO SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TODAY, AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE FRONT (PW VALUES UP TO 2-2.3") WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED AND CONTINUE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH POPS ~40-50%. HOWEVER, GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL BE FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARD OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE RESIDES (RAIN CHANCES UP TO 60-70%). WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE FROM ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING OR PERSISTENT
BANDING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER, THESE IMPACTS MAY BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IF HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS OR ANY ISOLATED TOTALS EXCEED 4". A MARGINAL
RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPANDS NORTHWARD
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF
I-4. A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST, WHERE PERSISTENT
BANDING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT.
WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY NEAR TO
NORTH OF THE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 15 MPH.
OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY, WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COASTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WAVE RUNUP TO NEAR
THE DUNE LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALSO
CONTINUES TODAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AND
STALLS AS A CUTOFF LOW TRIES TO FORM WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH,
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE GRADUALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL
KEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY, WITH POPS AROUND 60%, DECREASING TO 40-50% INLAND.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN ALOFT. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS
THIS AREA, EXCEPT ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LINGER. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 40-50%
SUNDAY, AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE WHERE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NE WINDS IS FORECAST. BREEZY N/NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TREASURE COAST AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH AROUND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
EVOLVE. THE GFS KEEPS A TROUGH ACROSS TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING THIS LOW A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, OVERALL
FORECAST TRENDS INTO NEXT WEEK INDICATE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 30-40% AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION UNDER LOWER LEVEL N/NE FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES THEN LOOK TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE E/SE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...FRONT NEAR TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTHWARD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY
THEN DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND WILL PRODUCE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS
AT TIMES, MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE, AS THEY INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS 3-5 FEET TODAY WILL ALSO BUILD UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
VOLUSIA WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS THIS WEEKEND. N/NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SWELLS UP TO 6 FEET
CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, MAINLY MLB
SOUTHWARD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND THEN PUSH INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH VCTS
STARTING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT 17Z. HAVE ADDED MVFR TEMPOS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR STARTING AT 18Z, AND STARTING ALONG THE COAST
STARTING AT 17Z FROM MLB NORTHWARD AND STARTING AT 14Z FROM VRB
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 73 84 72 / 50 40 60 40
MCO 87 72 87 72 / 50 20 50 20
MLB 86 74 86 74 / 70 40 60 40
VRB 86 72 87 72 / 70 50 60 40
LEE 86 71 86 70 / 40 10 40 10
SFB 86 72 86 72 / 50 20 50 30
ORL 86 72 86 72 / 50 20 50 20
FPR 86 72 86 71 / 70 50 60 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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